November 19, 2012
Poor card on First day of the Mumbai racing season 2012-13 . Six Races have less than 8 runners participating . No major surprises can be expected due to limited options as horses carry Pune form. The only difference is tracks are different , late gallopers have better chance to succeed. Front runners will not be able to make much of an impression in most races unless they are far superior.
Comments and Preferences are mentioned below. As always look for value bets in whatever way possible and avoid On Money Favorites. Too many fancied runners from MAM stable , all of them ridden by got abroad Liam Jones.
1. Fajr or Milano Green .
The perfect RWITC Class Vb race to start off the proceedings.3 year old's have a better chance to WIN.
By the Way can place at longer odds.
2. Unknown Rebel or Princess Khartoum
Both are in with a chance. The former has been consistent and with jockey Kavraj Singh doing well these days , a fair chance to succeed.
The latter found the pune 1200 trip short for comfort in previous run. The mumbai straight will definitely be more suited to its style of running.
Afsoon and Mahima for minor places.
Witrh Blue star woefully out for form , the options are limited. One can only hope that Liam P Jones rides competently , his performance at btc was pretty mediocre.
4 Silver Birch or Home Alone.
Cent Per Cent has lost its Winning rhythm and with Suraj narredu in saddle , its a difficult call. Based on previous run , looks a bit tough to Win . With Vittoria in the fray one is always in doubt on intent.
Home Alone is advantageously placed ,last run was against speedy Silk Cut where it could not cut pace in initial stabes. Can upset.
Silver Birch - redeemed its reputation after a poor start at Pune . Facing experienced campaigners here , yet a fair chance.
Fabulous Florence , Brindaban
Fabulous Florence is withdrawn
Race for 2 year old debutant's .
Choices are based on bloodlines as is not possible to judge based on limited track works. A Couple of them are not active in tracks , not sure how they are allowed to RUN.
Gemone may need slightly longer trip to show its potential.
No point betting on Brindaban due to ODDS / Jockey factor
6. Rosalind / Turf Lighting.
Close call , jockey merit will decide the outcome. The former has impressive credentials based on pune runs. Will be running first time at this centre. 4 year old meeting some younger horses.
Turd Lighting is a genuine sprinter and has the weights in favour. The performance of the jockey in earlier races will give fair indication of his capability.
Manyatta - is tracking very well , can hope to place if any of these 2 are found lackign in efforts.
7.Gold Glamour , Step Up.
GG was given a long break after a couple of poor runs in blr. Finished a good 2nd to Visionist after lying at the rear end of the field in class III. The latter Won a class II race later. Hence looks good on paper. Rest depends on jockey,
Step up - though a class IV winner , the manner in which it Won was quite impressive. With Solor out of depth & Augustus not in this league , seems to be the only challenger to fancied runner.
8.San Rafeal / Hill Ranger.
The best horse in the fray is undoubtedly Home Factor. Pune runs were backward. Trainer is fit for class VB races. Is content with a couple of Wins every season. Rest of the time uses mediocre jockeys and rarely works the horses. Has lost to horses which have progressed to class III. This horse is now demoted to class IV.
Hill Ranger is class VB Winner , no visible tracks. Has some form to go by.
San Rafeal - off the shelf for a long time. One gamble failed in pune. Next outing was not even tried. Choice of rider reflects Intent. Should place , can Win.
9. Hurricane Wind / Halle.
Halle has seen superior company in last 2 starts , will be conceding weight for the first time since debut. Owner's have poor record on Favorites.
Hurricane Wind lost to Nicanora and Queen of Venus , not in the same league as Neona and Commander , whom Halle has raced with. A maiden till date.
Set Ablaze - first run over this distance after failing to deliver over 1200 despite the hype on its breeding. If the handicap and ODDS affect the fancied runners , can UPSET.
Good luck ,