2010 : Day 1 .

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Last race day for 2009

Many bogus races in the offing on the last DAY of the calender year 2009. When 4 out of 7 races have participants below 8 , it is clear that the ultimate beneficiaries are the Club and the bookies as the Payment is restricted to the First 2 Horses Only. 

In addition we see multiple entries from the same owner or  trainer with assistance from other friendly professionals  which clearly is an indication of how BOGUS racing is turning out to be at Mumbai. Horses being withdrawn at the gates to facilitate Cooked up races and trainers taking turns in Winning races is the norm these days. Disgraceful trainers like Narendra Lagad and I.A.Sait have lucrative trebles on a DAY which by itself is a record ( on these days the so called Champion Trainers take a back seat and utilise the services of JUNK Jockeys to manipulate races )  and then resort to unethical means of Hooking horses to enable fellow trainers to WIN races.It is extremely difficult to go by actual horse merit or handicapping due to the above factors.

My views for the day -

1. VB race 

Green Signal , Vence and Oriental Magic are all in with a chance to score.

First named has seen better competitive horses and should be involved in the finish.

Oriental Magic is well bred and has had a decent run in race 29. Can improve further but one never knows when SK Sunderji is ON JOB.

Vence ,for once the Trainer has opted for a rider whose name is not RP CLEARLY.So gets a fair chance as well.

Nymph , expensive failure. Has been used to Fund the bookies till date.Cant WIN.

Benedictus has the services of a Mediocre Jockey who could not WIN even with Chancellor.Why the Top Trainer utilizes the services of this particular jockey is not known.

Step by Step , may relish the Mile distance and can hope to place.

2.Churchill did WIN in race 42 courtesy the Help extended by fellow professionals. Not that this Horse is BAD , just that with Winning a race with the help friendly entries does not give us the true picture of the Merit.

With Fiery Fortune not expected to even place and Tsesebe looking to be a FRIENDLY ENTRY , chances of Churchill are indeed Bright.In any case it is a negative bet if the odds are below .50.

the Giant is not active in tracks but has the CLASS to BEAT the fancied runner.

Tsesebe  , Jockey Trevor  showed some potential on debut. If its runs on Merit it can UPSET.

3.Kite Runner , Sea of Grace , Black Falcon.

Race for 3 year old's but in CLASS IV.

I expect the first named to DO Well .Place is MORAL.

Sea of Grace is well bred but not very sure if the Owner and Trainer will attempt to WIN on debut.

Their Lil Sister , ignored due to jockey factor.

Black Falcon is Speedy , can make all of them RUN. Jockey is the only Issue .

4.Fire Streak or Tyumen can challenge ONASSIS which WON impressively in a Class IV race.A negative bet is on if the odds are below .40.


With 3 entries from Pesi and Two running in Shapoor colors it is evident that the these additional friendly entries have been given purely to ensure that the race does not go VOID.

5.Semper Eadem has better credentials than Forever Young.

At best  Estevez can hope to Place if one of them Falter.

6.Star Vision , Ocean Princess , Macchupichhu .

Another Bogus Race .

Macchupichhu did place earlier to Star Warrior but stable mate Xisca was expected to do well. With RKW making an appearance on race day , XISCA was royally hooked and the Horse was made to run a pathetic race. Odds drifted from 2.25 to 6 to 1 and the horse ended in the rucks .The usual stewards enquiry was held and trainer Shroff gave some standard replies which were accepted for obvious reasons. This Horse MACCHUPICHHU was used by the trainer to recover the Investments made on Xisca.If this Horse Wins , will be the first off spring of Emerald Cat to succeed.Breeder's race ??

Three Entries from three Trainers but same Owner.What to expect is a ??

7.Feona , Black Rainbow , Tell me more.

Feona is speedy and has seen better days . Will place. Jockey merit can take it further. 

Black Rainbow , debut run was eye catching. With a lucrative Treble on Sunday , difficult to see the Owner and Jockey  obliging.

Pound Foolish is a decent Horse but Punters  who have had a bet on Jockey RPC have only been losers. This Trainer seems to be very attached to him , results does not Justify retaining a jockey who is as competent as R.Shelar. The color of the Skin fetches him some Extra renumeration and a some retainer fees.

Good bet - Semper Eadem

Each way - Kite Runner and Feona.

Will place / Can Strike - Vence and The Giant.

good day,

shyam

Hyd races , 28 /12

1. Cannon Act / Fabulous Girl - one of them is likely to WIN.

Donna Summers and Royal Flyer have a decent chance to  Place.

2.Vijay Marg /  Arabian Dancer / Rainbow Fog / Kings Cruise.

Most competitive race of the day.

Expect some UPSET here.

Kings Cruise was a COSTLY Flop in 84. handicap looks stiff again.

Vjays Marg is MY choice as it finished a close 6 th in its earlier outing to much superior horses.

3.Kohinoor King / VijaySiddanth , King of Court.

Al Fatha , not showing any signs of earlier form. Has JUST participated in the classics.

Kohinoor King had a decent run in race 125. Handicap is stiff but horse can do well as bloodlines are far superior.

VijaySiddanth - looking moral for place as it finished 4 th in race 109 with a mediocre jockey.

King of Court may place.

4. Play it Smart , Air Bender , Gables.

Smart Empire was  pathetic in its last 2 runs. Has definitely seen CLASS 1 Horses earlier in career but has lost form completely.

Play it Smart - at a tidy handicap. Upset if any can come here.

Air Bender - WILL PLACE.

5.Stately Don , Yippee , a Fire Work , Sparkling Flame.

Decision based on race time odds.

Stately Don should be a good e/w bet.

Sparkling lame can place at longer odds.

6. Lucky Damsel has a new rider , no idea of his MERIT. If competent can scare the rest.

Otherwise ,

 Al Jameel. Many Thanks , Break Point.

7.The Beatles Angel , Ice Candy , Greet well , Sweety Boy.

First named is expected to have a say in the finish.

Ice Candy can hope to place at Longer odds.

Good day,

shyam

27 th December , MUMBAI

With Haresh  Mehta presenting 2 Trophies , most Punters may OPT for his Horses. But i do feel that with 2 LONG SHOTS winning in the last 2 race day's , the Bookies have MADE the MOST when HE delivered those Stunning  Upsets. The race time ODDS on most Horses in those races were negative  giving the impression that it was the BOOKIES race. Wont be surprised if the real Donors for the CUP are the Bookies. On Sunday , except for the 6 th and 7 th race , We find the COLORS of the  OWNER in all the races. Rather surprising . A few gift races in the offing or bleeding of Punters , will be known by the end of the day.

Not giving the usual Selections ( for most races )  just the views.

1. VB race.

Orada  has surprisingly changed stables after JUST 2 Runs . Having finished 4 th to Sea Ruler and 6 th Sea Warrior IT SHOULD CANTER away to Victory . BUT , BUT after the Spectacular Record of Lagad on Thursday EVERY Punter will be cautious on his Horses. Going by the quality of Horses and JOCKEYS in the race it is indeed very difficult to Select another Horse based on its PERFORMANCE till date.

Ballad of Glory - Place is the ONLY option I can think of.

2.

Destined Prince - JWDL - So a ??? on its chances. 

Market fancy will be either Fire Vault or Apache Indian going by the RUN in race 37.Cant decide.

I will go with NARA , each way.

If Destined Prince has a Decent RIDER , One can look into it based on race time odds. However a good Jockey is is rather Improbable as this Trainer looks for GOOD ODDS and  hence opts for Junk Jockeys.

3.Another VB race.

Anamika , River Lass , Onus Probandi.

4. Nothing here , save the comments.

StarFall Won Impressively last Season. But at Pune it ran like a DUD.  But Pretty Commission , Ka Ching and Princess Ruby all had similar symptoms.So one is never sure of what FORM to expect.

Star Crowned - too good on CLASS but JWDL and Long Layoff is a ????

Blue Marine - looks difficult here.

Walking Tall - again JWDL , 1400 may be tOUGH.

Both of Lagad's Horses do not Impress.

Got to Go or Sea Warrior are the OPTIONS.

5. Our Fortune - WIN.Was hampered for room in Blue Danube race.Has nothing to beat HERE. Should be a GOOD bet , ODDS WILLING.

Slickkit or Irish Queen for the Second Spot.

6.Ice Breaker , Maseeha , Mr Greedy.

D D is ruled out as the choice at Mumbai would be the LOCAL Owners. DD was gifted a race at Hyd.

Phenomenale - lack of a run in mumbai and the fact that it lost to Mr Greedy does not give Much Hope.

Aquilo - Quota was cleared last Week.

Personified - lost form completely.

Congrats - class III Winner - 

Mothers Pride - late finisher , no genuine class , always comes good due to the handicap. 

Nora - Most expensive failure from the stable. Except for ONE solitary WIN , has just failed to deliver even when the Handicap is in Favour. Can the Mumbai Course prove LUCKY ???

Ignoring the these  horses , i have opted for those mentioned above.

7. Best race for the DAY, Genuine Sprinters in action.

Star Warrior - Won on the last day of the Pune season after being BACKED as a GOOD thing. Owners Presence made it look EASY. Can repeat.

Angels' Pursuit - was given a couple of dubious rides , race time ODDS indicated Intent.May at best PLACE.

Frost Fairy - Best in TRACKS , hence the  Jockey declared to ride is questionable.

Keringdingan - Tracking very impressively. The Bloodlines indicate SPEED and earlier offsprings have all DONE WELL. SHOULD be 
in 1- 2.

Ocean Wish - Surprise Winner  ( by the odds , not by the merit ) in race 30. Has the CLASS to Easily account for the field as the RUN benefit may be the deciding Factor.

Petra - Gifted a race recently by winning at odds of 30/ 100 .Stable mates and not so Interested Jockeys fulfilling the formalities. Different ballgame here. Dam was the CHAMPION sprinter of REPUTE. Sire is yet to SHOW its true COLORS as a Few WINS this SEASON are against mediocre opposition.

KERINGDINGAN would be my Each way bet  or will just go for place with OCEAN WISH.

8. 

Saint Vincent - Debutant Winner. At this handicap a difficult decision to make.

Lone Monarch - will have the upper hand compared with SV , but there are other Horses in the fray.

Empress of India - tracking regularly , can place. Usually this
Jockey never Tries when the fancied Horses are from Shroff. So a place bet is the option. 

Vacheron - last run was after being gelded. Gave a light run over 1200. This distance is ideal.WILL place. Can WIN.

Demonstrator - JWDL ???

9.

El tropico - with this trainer , either all Horses on TRY or NONE. If any of the Horses in the earlier races WIN , then El Tropico has a Fair chance even at this WEIGHT.

Hunter Bay - JWDL .

Peregrine Falcon - looks difficult , though the 2 nd to CHANCELLEOR can be referred. The horses which finished below were PURE JUNK. 

Sign of Love - speedy , can make it a STF affair.

Jalsa - last run was Very Impressive. But with J Pradeep , how many of us can be BRAVE enough to BET for WIN.  Place is looking certain.

STARDOM - First RUN. Decent track works.

Recommended Bets -

WIN - Our Fortune and Ice Breaker ( based on ODDS )

Keringdingan and Anamika - Each WAY.

Place  - Ballad of Glory , Maseeha , Jalsa.

Good day,

shyam

Hyd - 27 th December

My crisp choices for the day  -

1. Cicilia and Manki , Who else ???

At best Recast can SHINE though distance is SHARP. 

2.Royal Quest , Darktos the Muscle , Victory Signal.

Bad race.

Last named is tracking well , has positive change in equipment and can WIN.

Royal Quest , prefered as it is the Horse which has WON a race recently.

Darktos the muscle - can surprise.

3. race for 2 year OLD's.

4. Just be Cool , Amontillado , Lady Patricia.

Tiara is still sporting " s " , hence ignored,

Lady Patricia , by far the most superior horse but heavy IMPOST.

Amontillado - decent chance.

5. Triple Nine , Royal Bay , Cannon Hunt.

Cannot Hunt last won a 2400 race. Subsequent runs all over shorter distances , con job. Not sure if it can replicate the earlier form.

Triple Nine - decent EACH WAY chance.

Royal bay - rider was not EFFICIENT last week.Retained rider now on DUTY. May WIN.

6. CLASS I races always a Tough call.

Vijayrath gets the NOD from Iaepetus.

Carte Blance may place ahead of the ageing Coral Gables. 

Or will this be a GIFT race before RETIRING by the end of the YEAR for Coral gables.

7.Modest Bride , Silver Rose , Penumatcha.

Close fight expected for the first 2 spots.First named is expected to do WELL.

8. Vendetta , Time on , Vijay Dhanush.

9.Zorbonaut , China Pearl , Ninja Power.

Good day,

shyam

Calcutta , 26 th December.

1. Kuhaylan has a decent chance to score here. Place is certain.



2. Jacksonville is looking good for WIN. Not sure of the other contenders in the fray , so a each way bet is ON.

Classic or Fascinating may place.


3.Awesome Indian has a better rider . Should place.


Agent Archie's tracks are the best. Odds permitting a Good Bet.


Alice Rose or Starlit Smile may Place.






4.Bold Babe has the scales in favour. Can fight for Honors.


Thundering Hooves will place.



5.Royal Dance or Golden Globe - Depending on whom the Owner decides.


Anastasia or China Town for Place,

AAMAR KAKU - has had his share of wins. Time to reduce the handicap.


6.Difficult to choose from the fancied Horses.


I will go with a place bet on HUGO Boss.


Top of the Class is HIGHLY rated and can surprise.



7.Who will stay the distance ??? 


Harmonica , impressive Winner but a ??? on its staying capability.

Sana Pareil , iam not convinced.


So its either of the Khaitan Horses.  Safer to go for Place on one of them.




8.Star Luxurious , has the bloodlines to WIN.


Loughborough can place.

Hall Mark has not performed for AGES.Cant be backed.


Adriano - long layoff CASE.




Good luck




Shyam

Christmas day choices

Thursday Mumbai races were not up to expectations , but when 11 races are HELD On a SINGLE DAY it is difficult to Shortlist the best bets as perception of a good bet depends on the odds. One cant be a Winner in all races . Pointers will only help the visitors take the final decision. It was a bad day and the ODDS at race time only confused all of us. 

Followers of Form cant claim Victory as the On Money Certainty MORAL Bets failed .The Horses which WON did have decent odds. At the end of the day Narendra Lagad was the savior for the bookies. Horses from his stable which were fancied in 2 races Lost out but he came back strongly to WIN on lesser fancied Horses. Incidently ace Trainer I A Sait had a Grand Treble. It must have been ages since this Trainer had such a lucrative day.The records of both these trainers till Thursday were Pathetic , they way the Horses were strategically placed needs to be commended.


The choice of Jockeys by Shroff was a Give away as the likes of RP CLEAR and S Zervan cant be backed for Place also at Even Money. To expect these Jockeys to WIN on Fancied Horses is a CRUEL Joke. How many felt cheated by the performance of Sheikha and Chancellor.


On the other side it was a magnificient performance by the under rated Dasrath Singh.a Genuine TRIER unlike the so called Super Stars who dont even attempt to try when their horses are not fancied.



For all these LONG days , i guess it is better to stick to just 3 - 4 Win bets and / or  5 - 6 Place bets.


My choices for the bangalore races - 

1. Its either Approach or Star League at the Winning Post.

My Musketeer and Give me the Money for the Minor positions.

Showers of Luck , Aetius , Black Beauty and Constance are not likely to show sudden change in form.

2.Rumour Proof , Snow Peaks ( close call )

Rumour Proof , no record to back its claim but a filly which is well bred. At 62.50 it is a tough call to make. 

Snow Peaks - trainer Dominic entrusted a few Horses to Amyn merchant and took the punters DOWN. Had a Winner with STILL WILL recently with Y.S.Srinath. Is this the Winning combination ??

Feel it Enjoy it failed as Favorite . Not sighted in tracks / pool. 

Cute Angel can hope to place as the rest of the field is pretty mediocre. 

3.Tempus Fugit , Sun Dancing , Camorra , Balli Bay .

Seems to be the MOST competitive race for the day.

As always betting on the race for 2 year old's is a tricky  decision. Cant back with Confidence as potential of the Horses are not reflected in the track work.

4.Chinab , Misty Moonlight , Amiable Lady.

Based on its last run Amiable Lady has the best chance. But a filly expected to WIN carrying top weight is a ??

Chinab , reject hiorse from Dhariwal. Last run was indicative of its potential. Can do well here.

Misty moonlight - could not oblige even in Mysore , failed repeatedly in bangalore  though the bloodlines are the BEST. May WIN.

Pearl of Bangalore - handicap probability.

5.Our Little Savage / Desert Rule / My Friend Paul.

Difficult race as a few meritorious horses have completely LOST FORM. 

6.Cannavaro , Regal Ranson , Refresh , Redy to Mingle.

Most fo the horses in the field are Promottes coming from class IV.

Cannavaro is a CLASS II winner , on demotion here. Why the demotion is the ??? If the Jockey is upto the task should RUN away to victory.

Ready to Mingle and Regal Ransom - one of the stable choices will PLACE.


Refresh and Ahira for the minor placings.

7.Arabian Prince , Portabello , Lush Lashes , the Senator.

The Senator  DID WIN very impressively but had taken on a group of Horses which had no recent form to go by. 
Also it is not going to be easy carrying 62.50 kgs.
Arabian Prince ran close to Systematic which is considered to be better than the Senator.




Kripa was heavily backed at race time but Senora Encima had better ideas in race 19. Retained the same rider. May run close.


Lush Lashes , impressive performance in race 54 , can Improve further.

8.I Wanna Dance , Sunny Spell , Moon Child , African Sky.

bad race.


African Sky failed as 30/100 favorite in summer with Lisa Jones. Has a better rider ,sighted only once over the past 5 months in track. 


I Wanna Dance , had 2 forward runs. IS Fit. Can strike.


Moon Child - impressive in work outs. 


Marie Curie - may need a couple of runs .







Shyam





Recommended Bets - 


Arabian Prince - WIN
Star League and Tempus Fugit - Each way.
Place - My friend Paul and Moon Child 

24/ 12 / 2009

quite a few imported Jockey's  taking off for the Christmas Week end and hopefully most races would see the local boys  Involved in the finish.

 1. VB race .Always Smile , Mia Stella , Prince of Troy.

Races 28 and 35 give a  fair indication of the likely Winner of the race.

Relative Jockey merit and handicapping does indicate that Prince of Troy may not find it easy.Was 1.75 lenghts behind  Lakhdema but has JUST One work out on 16/12.

Silver Sands has the Whip less Jockey , Rajendra may have WON a race for 2 year old's where most Jockeys don't use the WHIP and some of them were not interested in the proceedings. Here the WHIP will matter a lot and hence very difficult for this Horse to WIN.

Always Smile , which finished 8.75 lenghts behind Lakhdema has the services of a better Jockey and the handicap is in favour of this Horse compared to Prince of Troy. May settle it Start to Finish.

Nurai , sparingly RUN , not very sure of its CLASS and Merit.

Mis Stella - the best of the lot if one were to go by the Bloodline but has the services of the worst Rider in the field.

Brilliant Moon - did well in race 111 in Pune , subsequently No SHOW.

2. Another Vb race.

Sun Burst , Flo Nightingale , Magical Manthra.

Another bad race.

With the Festival approaching Trainer R D Mellow may allow Sun Burst to Run true to merit and try to encash the proceeds.

Silver Screen - running a Vb race does not do justice to the merit of the horse.

Magical Mantra - distance looks better compared to the 1000 metre race on DAY 1.

Tehrani - good chance if NOT SPORTING BANDAGES. That will be visible ONLY during the paddock parade.

Try your Luck - usual CON Job of reducing Handicap in Pune and trying in Mumbai.

3.Hatrick of Vb races ???

Elemento Trance , Zippity Zip , Dangerous Belle.

4.Forever Amber  , Calyspo Dancer , Marine Zone.

Having run with the likes of Western Challenge , Born Special , Tsesebe and TelStar , Forever Amber faces some really Meek Horses here in this Race. Should WIN unless the Trainer and Jockey have other ideas.

Calypso Dancer - off the shelf for a Long time. Been sacrificed many times . Can definitely place.

Marine Zone - tracking regularly. May surprise.

Wings of Angel - had a decent run in race 5. Positive change in Jockey merit VISIBLE. Will be the upset if any.

5.Golden Knight , Dancing Money , Solar Angel , Rose of Texas.

Going by the choice of Jockey by SHROFF on most of the Horses slated to RUN on Thursday , one gets the feeling that these Horses are Just there for an AIRING. Lack of intent may be visible at race time . Until then Rose of Texas gets a fair chance to SCORE.

Golden Knight - well bred , may Strike here.

Dancing Money - Last 2 runs by Mediocre Jockeys . With the Pet Jockey of the Trainer in the saddle one can EXPECT DON to Strike.

Solor Angel - bottom handicap , 6 th to Saint Vincent . May place at Longer ODDS.

Forward Charge - not here.

Golden grace - Why S.S. Baria ??

6. Tequila , Heifitz , Hazel Morgan , Sea Value.

Bad race from punting point of view .

7. for 2 year old's.

5 entries from RKW . Manipulation is the order of the day.

3 Interlinked entries -  Todywala , , Vinayak and Shroff. 

Shroff' Horse is DOUBTFUL as Jockey merit is not visible Todywala's Horse has has the Retainer Jockey in the saddle.

8 . Oyster Princess , Swahili , Princess Ruby , Catalyst.

First named is DUE TO SCORE. Good Bet , odds WILLING.

Princess Ruby has tremendous finishing ability. Meeting a Tough set here.

Catalyst - had a decent run in race 15. At a tidy handicap.

Swahili - May be from the Chairman's stable but has been wayward , race time odds have clearly conveyed intent. Each time the Horse is TRIED in a different manner. Cant bet confidently.

Misschevious Trot - Late burst always , can the handicap HELP ???

9. Let CHANCELLOR beat the Field.

I will have a negative bet as the required Confidence on the Jockey is lacking.

Fiery fox , Highland Music are my CHOICE'S for Place.

Scenic Silver is good but Jockey can be classified as JUNK. 

Who is  this P.Trevor on Highland Flame claiming 5 kgs allowance ??

10. Roaming Flame , Fin Foot , Midsummer Knight .

Sheikha was expected to challenge Versaki in the PBM earlier this year. Had some issues at the stall and then Bled. Coming after a very very LONG layoff. Should WIN by merit , better to SKIP and watch the performance.

Fin Foot- Very speedy filly. Skipped the pune season , Not sure of its Fitness as on date.

Misummer - Finished last to Jacqueline is better than saying Finished 2 nd to the Multi Classic Winner.

Roaming Flame - Is the Horse to BEAT. Came up with a belated effort in race 17. Tracking well subsequently. 

11.Force of Law , Solor , Always , Belligerent.

take your PICK. 

Solor has been HOOKEd royally many a Time. May come good here.

Force of Law , has seen better horses .

Always , tidy HANDICAP . Best Rider , wrong Trainer.

details of executed bets and kainchis are at -

http://bettingmeter.blogspot.com/

Good luck

shyam