Card looks decent but the Day is SPECIAL.My thoughts on the races are as follows :
1.Should be a straight fight between Doi Moi and French Kiss .
Eternal failure Western Challenge has seen better Horses in its career and surely some better Jockeys also . For the record it had finished ahead of RIYASAT in race 40.
Psychic Power did run well in race 145 and may relish the extra distance but i am skeptical of its chances.
2.Vb race , best avoided.
I would have a bet on SAARAH for place.
As far as winners are concerned it looks like Highland Quest and Saddlers Rule may have to fight it out. But Jockey capability on Saddlers Rule is a ??? as
S. Zervan has not proved his credentials as of date.
Chieftan is back to RIGHT DISTANCE , after change in stables.Dont ignore for minor placings.
The Giant will fund the bookies for Even PLACE.
3.Sea Sparrow has to only beat BEMISAAL.
Will run at .30 and hence not a Logical BET.
Small Place bet on Bemisaal seems a better option.
Si Como No , was fancied last week but withdrawn. Well bred but confidence to back in a MILE race on DEBUT is lacking.
4.Arkhos , Siroco , Chios .
Looks like the race is for the Jockeys with Allowance .
Dancing Glory may look better off on handicap but 3 runs within a month may have exhausted the resources of the Horse.
Arkhos is a genuine Class II horse which has not been exploited. Tograllu may be a TURN OFF but do have small bet for the sake of Merit of the Horse.
Feet of Flames , was not prepared in previous outing and ran unextended. Choice of Jockey is a surprise here.
Siroco ,after previous run seems fit and ready to strike.
Chios , with Nadeem Alam is a ????
5.Hymns to Freedom , Red Chili , Pace maker , Cameo.
Race is at the mercy of Trainer Jodha.
Pace Maker , is speedy and will try Start to finish Tactics.
Hymns to freedom is fit and ready to take on the field.Good each way.
Red Chili at this handicap is the MORAL PLACE certainty for the day.
6.Feona , Kite runner , River Blitz .
River Blitz is from Ikhytar , which has a solitary Winner till date. Initial Speed was not noticed in both runs of this Horse .May WIN but not my BET.
Feona is one more Horse from jodha which has the Ability to Strike on debut.
Kite Runner's siblings have done well and hence merits attention.
Thier Lil Sister ?? Hope all are aware of the reason behind the NAME ?? Illustrious siblings but a WIN here seems unlikely.
7.Yowza , Forest Native , Gift of Grace.
One of the worst races for the day Limited Contenders and picking Winner seems a Hazardous Task.
First named WILL place.
8.Game of Power / Honey Day / Suraj / Stud of Gold .
Suraj has run in class II during last Mumbai season. Does well only ONCE in a season to recover all DUES.may only PLACE.
Game of Power is at a tidy handicap and looks like a very good EACH WAY BET.
Honey Day is the lONG SHOT for the day.
Stud Of Gold was given a horrendous ride in race 208 , but on expected lines as it was the Favorite and ridden by P.S.Chouhan the ULTIMATE fixer who obliges for all TRAINERS.Improvement in 10 days may lead to enquiry ??
Todays Special could be : Imran Chisty who has SIX mounts and all of them are likely to be fancied by the BOOKIES :
Psychic Power , The Giant , feet of flames , Cameo , Es Sider , Stud of Gold
I would not give him more than 2 for the day.If this target is achieved MID DAY , then the rest can be ignored.
Looking good for Place : Saarah , Bemisaal , Arkhos , Red Chilly , Yowza , Game of Power.
good day,
SHYAM
April 30, 2009
April 28, 2009
ODDS
You might be wondering what actually decides what odds on each horse ?
The ODDS are quoted by the Bookies to entice the Punters to place a bet.The Bookie or Bookmaker is a private entity and the main purpose of taking the bets is to to make a profit at the end of EACH race , though that may not happen practically .The impression most of us carry is that Bookies are always making money . Well , how does the bookmaker do this ? Well all bookmakers try to achieve balancing to guarantee profits for themselves.The term Book maker is USED as normally the Bookie balances the books .The bookmaker offers odds based on probabilities where the sum total would add up to 100 .If players place bets in proportion to these percentages then the bookmaker would return no profit and no loss . In order to guarantee a profit the probabilities of different outcomes must be adjusted from their 'true' values to values that total a figure above 100%. This means that so long as the amounts the bookmaker takes in bets correspond to the odds of the true ' probabilities ' the bookmaker will make an profit. The bookmaker predicts the percentage money flow on the possible outcomes of an event. He then calculates odds to match the money flow , and he adjusts these odds to allow for a profit margin.So long as the bookmaker is correct in his predictions of the percentage amounts to be wagered on each outcome, he will return a guaranteed profit.
This is not to say that bookmaker will not loss money on individual races, but over time using this system the bookmaker will always come out on top. Using his knowledge of the marketplace, and through his calculations of odds, the bookmaker endeavors to return a profit regardless of the outcome of the event.
Most solid, established bookmakers calculate profit at 8%.The probabilities add up to 108 % . The excess of 8 % over 100 percent is the Bookmaker's margin , ( in addition to the unofficial tax of 9 % of the BET ) In short he has sold odds of 108 % but the outcome can only ever be 100 %. There is a 100% chance that one horse or the other will win in simple terms The bookmaker, if he can take bets in the proportion of the probabilities, will pay out 100 whichever wins on 108 taken, a percentage profit to him of 8 %.
In practice, of course, the bookmaker will need to adjust his odds in accordance with supply and demand. More money for Horse A than the estimated probability indicates will cause him to shorten the odds against A and lengthen those for Horse B . A bookmaker BOOK is only theoretical as most of the money they receive is placed on favorites and hence the book may not get balanced as mentioned above.the actual scenario is that Many horses participate in race and this could be any where between 3 and 15 .In all these cases if a Long Priced Horse WINS then the bookmakers would be making bumper profits as most punters would have ignored the Horse and would have bet only on the first 3 or 4 favorites. However, if a favorite wins then the bookmakers are likely to be out of pocket as large sums are usually wagered on the favorite. Over a period of time the odds are created fairly accurately. Bookmaker's have periods where lots of favourites win and hence they would end up losing but at times when none of the fancied horses win , then they plan their overseas holidays .
The above calculations assume that the flow of money will match the 'true' probabilities of the different outcomes. But the reality is that bets placed will not correspond to the figures that these statistics suggest they 'should'. Public opinion will favor other outcomes. One big factor that influences betting is the fact that Punters bet for the Horse that is tipped by the connections of the horse and professional tipsters .So for example, a bookmaker can expect a greater total amount wagered on a Horse belonging to a Big Owner than on a Horse which is owned by a lesser known Owner.Another influence is the fact that more money tends to be wagered on the favorite.The bookmaker can calculate adjustments to his odds once betting is underway, so if the money flows on each outcome don't match the predictions he made, he can still ensure himself the return of a profit. The bookmaker will base his adjustments on predefined limits of BET amounts, and he will make adjustments only when these limits are reached.Matching the odds to the money flow is known as ' balancing the book '. Many bookies follow this system and play SAFE as they are guaranteed of Profits so long as they can balance his book. If his book is not balanced, then the outcome of the event will determine a win or a loss to the bookmaker.Usually bookies who operate on the sidelines aims to avoid this situation.But there are bookies who are willing to take the risk based on their perception of the race as well as Information from interested stake holders be it the Jockeys , Owners , Trainers , Stablehands etc., Many a time these bookies make a windfall as their judgement is correct and they dont try to balance BOOKS .
If too many people start betting on a particular horse the bookmaker will reduce the odds on that horse, making it less attractive for people to bet on. He may also increase the odds on the rest of the horses making it more attractive for people to bet on them instead.If the bookmaker gets his sums right then it will not matter to him which horse wins the race, he will be guaranteed a profit regardless of the outcome. In India , Bookies have to collect a FIXED % of the Bet collected as betting Tax and remit it to the respective State Government. This varies from 20 to 25 % depending on the City in which the betting takes place.However most of the punters are not ready to fork out this TAX as they feel that is a burden and does not justify the end Return on Investment. The canny bookies found a quick solution to this by collecting HALF TAX and using up this money to balance their book / meet the daily expenses / pay off the club officials who look the other way.
Only the minor bets received is accounted for the tax purposes . Most of the small time punters cant afford to Bet Rs 1000 / Rs 2000 ( minimum bet size for half tax ) So these punters shell out the full tax and this is acknowledged by the bookie by issuing a Card reflecting the Investment on the Bet and the payout if it succeeds.
Punters who bet in excess of Rs 1000 usually avoid paying full tax and are very happy to pay half tax .Though worded as Half tax it is usually 9 or 10 % , though the Official tax rate could be 25 % .The mutually accepted rate depends on the relationship between the Punter and the Bookie and the Volume of Business generated over a period of time. All these bets are not acknowledged in writing and usually it is the trust and good faith that keeps the Business going.
Many big time punters who are content with marginal profits manage with the Arbitrage betting which takes advantage of the different odds offered by different bookmakers. There are many factors that can lead to a disparity in odds between bookmakers. A bookmaker in Mumbai is likely to present different odds than a bookmaker in bangalore will. Using this disparity in odds, and by betting on the different outcomes with different bookmakers, the punter can return a guaranteed profit if One of the Two fancied Horses WINS.
A typical example of a race where the First Two favorites are Horses named A and B
First Bookie Odds on A to win: 80
Odds on B to win: 1.8
Second Bookie Odds on A to win: 70
Odds on B 2.1
In this example, if we place one bet of 1000 on A to win with Bookie 1, we get rs 800 if A wins. If A loses it loses, then of course, we lose our 1000 stake.
We can choose to bet on both A and B with the First Bookie but this would not make any sense: we would be bound to lose overall. All bookies calculate their odds so it's impossible to bet on all outcomes and make a profit. So the key is to take one odd from one bookmaker and one from the other. We can then work out if it is possible to make a guaranteed profit.We need to find the best combination of odds with which we can bet on each outcome - A to win with one bookmaker, and B to win with the other. In this example, the best odds are A with First and B with Second Bookie.
So let's put 1000 on each. That's a spend of 2000 total. If A wins, the loss is 200 . But if B wins, we net 1100 .
If we alter the amount we bet on each, we can work that into a guaranteed profit. We keep our total spend at 2000 and we adjust our stakes to ensure that a win on either outcome will total more than 2000.
To bring our some sure profit, we need to take enough out of our 2000 bet amount to make that extra amount ie an extra 300 to just bring us into profit. That means we're left with less to spend on the B bet.So Rs 1300 is wagered on Horse A , it would yield Rs 40 profit if the Horse Wins and if the second Horse Wins then the profit would be + 470 as against Rs 1100 , for same size bets without the arbitrage.All this has to considered with the TAX outflow also as this would affect the net payout.
As far as the ODDS on the official TOTE is concerned , the process is simple as the Club deducts a Fixed percentage of the POOL Amount collected and then distributes the Money on the Horses based on the Amount bet on each Horse.Those who bet on the Successful Horse get dividend , which would basically be the Losing Bets of fellow punters .
While on this subject , it is important to know the WAY the bookie decides the Initial odds and the subsequent movement as many a time a Horse in the night Odds is not sighted in the opening odds and vice versa.The night odds are decided by the bookies based on the information that they get from the track reporters who keep them informed of the fitness and form of the Horses. They also collect information from well wishers from the Jockey and Training Community .Without their Help , it would be difficult to OPEN the ODDS / Accept bets as the Risk would be substantial if a long priced horse is backed down.As most Trainers Jockeys Owners , do bet with the same bookies it is inevitable that the bookies cant be paying them on every occasion. Hence at times it so happens that even when negative signals come from the Stake holders a Particular Horse is declared as Favorite ( false favorite ) this is for the simple reason that the Bookies can accept bets at low odds initially and then tempt punters by gradually increasing the odds.One can be sure that Horse is not on JOB if the ODDS drift alarmingly at race time.This is a clear indication that the Owner / Trainer have not backed the Horse , so these Horses do not perform as per expectations.Very rarely do Horses whose odds drift alarmingly , WIN.
Some time back trainer M.Eashwar was the darling of the bookies. His horses used to open at 3 to 1 for WIN in the morning and at race time the odds would be 12 to 1 with place odds being 3 to 1.The inference is that in most of these cases Encashment takes place in advance.The same can be said of some other trainers like Dhariwal , Arjun Manglorkar , Attalaholi , Ganapathy etc though the odds do not go up as much.It is a clear sign that THEIR MONEY IS not on the horse.
In Mumbai , Trainer C D Katrak is known for Winning on Low Priced and well backed Favorites.In most cases , where his fancied Horses Lose , it can be seen that the odds do GO UP just before race time. Narendra Lagad's Win on Desdomona recently was probably the first time that a horse WON at so low odds. 80 % of his WINS are on Longer priced horses and if the same are declared as favorite at race time , the clear message to the Racing patrons is to KEEP AWAY.Trainers like Todywala , Altaf , Surti , Abbas , I A Sait all prefer winning at lucrative odds and hence unless the MONEY is wagered on their behalf , the Horses rarely WIN.
Some clean Trainers ensure that Horses run true to form irrespective of their individual bets.It is Difficult to name the few who operate in India.
Most small trainers try to WIN when the odds are higher as these Trainers have just One or Two Winners in a season and it is difficult to sustain based on the Training fees charged.Invariably it so happens that when a Horse from these trainers are ON MONEY favorites the Amount is ENCASHED prior to the races.Why would they risk a bet and then lose , the simplest option is to ensure that the Horse loses and collect the payout from the BOOK MAKER.
April 27, 2009
who can clarify ??
Tactics is something which decides the outcome of the in 90 % of the races.Irrespective of the relative Horse / Jockey merit often it is the tactics deployed which decide the WINNER.
In case the Rider makes a false move / tactical error at a crucial stage of the race , it would be too late to recover lost ground as even a fraction of a Second lost during the race makes a difference to the eventaul outcome .
As noticed on Television and also based on the race day report , the impression, WE get is that the Trainer is the ONE who gives in the instructions to the concerned Jockey.Once in a while the Jockey is asked to ride his OWN RACE thereby the judgement is to his discretion.
The riding instruction are usually based on the Trainers reading of the race and their experience of working with the Horse .Tactics usually change based on the distance and also considering the racing pattern of other Horses in the fray.
The reason for this post is the recent riding skills displayed by apprentice Jockey N.S.Parmar . Mallesh is also considered for his ride in the Casino Royale Million Race.
Jockey N.S.Parmar , who rides for Vinayak and Shroff has been doing well over the past month and what I noticed that Jockey N.S.Parmar , when riding on a fancied Horse , has the tendency of bringing the Horse to the centre of the track right from the start , or take it wide outside when the Horse is asked for an effort.This has been seen on all His WINNING mounts till date , be it Sioux Chief , Thanda , Swahili , Cavaradosi , Chios , Phospher , Encouragement , Tsesebe or Absolute Reality.He also displayed similar skills , on some losing horses like Blue jay , Cyclades , Cotswold Arms etc. All this is Fine and is appreciated as he has shown great courage and talent in Winning against other seasoned professionals.In all these cases the Horse was fancied strongly irrespective of the book maker odds , on account of its previous performance or on account of the advantage in the scales.Iam sure the Money of the Trainer / Owner was on the Horse on all these Horses.
But his recent rides on some horses notably Solor and Catalyst over the weekend defies logic.In the first instance Highland was strongly fancied and Solor was at longer odds.the betting did indicate that the Horse was not fancied by those who matter.
As always fancied Horses from certain owners get the preference as Breeders and Owners need to co exist.The race followed true to betting .Solor in all the three earlier runs was always kept handy in the initial stages and then asked for an effort by taking the Horse Wide at the home bend or at the 200 metre marker.On saturday the Horse was kept to the railings all along and only after the Winner made the Move and surged ahead the jockey tried to catch up with a belated effort .Result ?? did not suceed as the Intent to do so was lacking.
Catalyst , WON very well at longer odds when Ridden by David Allen at top handicap.It was also seen to drift to the outside track at the closing stages of the race it WON.
So the instruction of the trainer must have been similar on both SOLOR and Catalyst.
On Sunday , Catalyst was not fancied to WIN and bookies were generous to offer Place odds also. As expected the Horse was kept to the railings by the Jockey , behind a wall of Horses and when asked for effort at a crucial stage came up very well but could not beat the WINNER WAHY .
The tactics used on both the Horse trained by Nina Lalwani leads us to question the logic. Was the Jockey asked to do so by the trainer ? or was that a independent decision taken by a apprentice Jockey ?? The latter does not seem possible .
Does the RWITC conduct an enquiry only when the Favorite Loses or when only when the Horse involved is one in which they are involved ??
Why is that Trainers / Jockeys are not questioned when an indifferent ride is noticed.
Second case on hand is Arts . On Debut the Horse was a Moral bet for WIN and there were no takers for most of the Horses in the fray.However there was some some last minute betting on River Blossom .In this case David Allen on ARTS was not very keen to take the Horse to the front and it finally cost the Race. Not a surprise that the Winner RIVER BLOSSOM , was owned by Rakesh Kumar Wadhwan who has PLENTY of Horses with C.D.Katrak trained Arts and was ridden by Daniel Grant.
In the next Outing also Arts allowed Whispering Willows to surge ahead but caught up with the runner up , close to the post as the runner up was seen tiring. In the Third appearance on the track , over 1 400 metre race , Arts was again not asked for an effort until it was too late.Considering the fact that it lost to may superior horses and the end result was close , One can accept the result at face value.
Sunday saw three runners facing the starter and 2 of the Horses were from C.D.Katrak with Arts not being fancied from the betting point of view. Aristocratical belong to Mumbai based owners was the fancied horse and had the credentials to WIN. The favorite was Smokin Aces , who had WON impressively on Debut , but beating some Horses which were beaten comprehensively by Arts in an earlier race. Besides Arts and Aristocratical had the benefit of participating with some superior horses like Forest Flair , Versaki , Austral flash etc. in some highly visible prestigious races .
In most of the Three Horse races , all of them have a equal chance of scoring unless the Favorite is a Horse with impressive credentials like Set Alight or Oasis Star and the rest merely there to collect the stake money offered by the CLUB.We have seen many such races taking place and the result of most of them is a forgone conclusion .in this particular race , My reading did indicate that all three had a good chance but in view of past experience , Smoking Aces had no chance what so ever to WIN.
While no one can question the Bookies ODDS and the way the favorites are decided , what was shocking was the decision to make ARKS the pace setter for the race. Having being ridden off the pace in all the 3 starts , by deciding to send it to the front to ACT as a pacemaker to the FANCIED stable mate Aristocractical , the Horse was denied a chance to WIN the race. Not that it would have WON if it the earlier tactics was used .It may have lost , but that is a different matter.
The Owners being in Delhi may not mind this loss as there are several other races in the past / in the future which was given ( will be given ) on a platter when they decide to make a Visit to the race course .
Punters who bet on HORSES , do so on some assumptions.One of them being that the Horse would be given a fair chance to score and would be ridden in the same manner as earlier unless the race distance varies to a large extent.
In all the above three cases , punters who bet on them Lost out.
Who decides on whether a Enquiry is to be called for ?? The Stewards who are also Owners and big Gamblers decide on these matters , depending on the way the end result pans out.The race report and incidents can be seen on the official web site of the club.
But most of these enquiry cases are those in which these Stake holders are interested or when there is a genuine case of hooking a horse.
What needs to be done is to take action even in those cases , where a change in pattern of running is noticed and action taken irrespective of whether the Horse is a fancied runner or a Long shot as the end loser is always the Punter.
As Solor, Catalyst and Arts was tipped , I may come across as a Loser, complaining post race , but in reality a negative bet on Smokin Aces and a each way bet on Catalyst ensured that the I did not lose out .I am raising these issues as a normal punter who gets frustrated when Horses are not allowed to run on merit.
shyam
In case the Rider makes a false move / tactical error at a crucial stage of the race , it would be too late to recover lost ground as even a fraction of a Second lost during the race makes a difference to the eventaul outcome .
As noticed on Television and also based on the race day report , the impression, WE get is that the Trainer is the ONE who gives in the instructions to the concerned Jockey.Once in a while the Jockey is asked to ride his OWN RACE thereby the judgement is to his discretion.
The riding instruction are usually based on the Trainers reading of the race and their experience of working with the Horse .Tactics usually change based on the distance and also considering the racing pattern of other Horses in the fray.
The reason for this post is the recent riding skills displayed by apprentice Jockey N.S.Parmar . Mallesh is also considered for his ride in the Casino Royale Million Race.
Jockey N.S.Parmar , who rides for Vinayak and Shroff has been doing well over the past month and what I noticed that Jockey N.S.Parmar , when riding on a fancied Horse , has the tendency of bringing the Horse to the centre of the track right from the start , or take it wide outside when the Horse is asked for an effort.This has been seen on all His WINNING mounts till date , be it Sioux Chief , Thanda , Swahili , Cavaradosi , Chios , Phospher , Encouragement , Tsesebe or Absolute Reality.He also displayed similar skills , on some losing horses like Blue jay , Cyclades , Cotswold Arms etc. All this is Fine and is appreciated as he has shown great courage and talent in Winning against other seasoned professionals.In all these cases the Horse was fancied strongly irrespective of the book maker odds , on account of its previous performance or on account of the advantage in the scales.Iam sure the Money of the Trainer / Owner was on the Horse on all these Horses.
But his recent rides on some horses notably Solor and Catalyst over the weekend defies logic.In the first instance Highland was strongly fancied and Solor was at longer odds.the betting did indicate that the Horse was not fancied by those who matter.
As always fancied Horses from certain owners get the preference as Breeders and Owners need to co exist.The race followed true to betting .Solor in all the three earlier runs was always kept handy in the initial stages and then asked for an effort by taking the Horse Wide at the home bend or at the 200 metre marker.On saturday the Horse was kept to the railings all along and only after the Winner made the Move and surged ahead the jockey tried to catch up with a belated effort .Result ?? did not suceed as the Intent to do so was lacking.
Catalyst , WON very well at longer odds when Ridden by David Allen at top handicap.It was also seen to drift to the outside track at the closing stages of the race it WON.
So the instruction of the trainer must have been similar on both SOLOR and Catalyst.
On Sunday , Catalyst was not fancied to WIN and bookies were generous to offer Place odds also. As expected the Horse was kept to the railings by the Jockey , behind a wall of Horses and when asked for effort at a crucial stage came up very well but could not beat the WINNER WAHY .
The tactics used on both the Horse trained by Nina Lalwani leads us to question the logic. Was the Jockey asked to do so by the trainer ? or was that a independent decision taken by a apprentice Jockey ?? The latter does not seem possible .
Does the RWITC conduct an enquiry only when the Favorite Loses or when only when the Horse involved is one in which they are involved ??
Why is that Trainers / Jockeys are not questioned when an indifferent ride is noticed.
Second case on hand is Arts . On Debut the Horse was a Moral bet for WIN and there were no takers for most of the Horses in the fray.However there was some some last minute betting on River Blossom .In this case David Allen on ARTS was not very keen to take the Horse to the front and it finally cost the Race. Not a surprise that the Winner RIVER BLOSSOM , was owned by Rakesh Kumar Wadhwan who has PLENTY of Horses with C.D.Katrak trained Arts and was ridden by Daniel Grant.
In the next Outing also Arts allowed Whispering Willows to surge ahead but caught up with the runner up , close to the post as the runner up was seen tiring. In the Third appearance on the track , over 1 400 metre race , Arts was again not asked for an effort until it was too late.Considering the fact that it lost to may superior horses and the end result was close , One can accept the result at face value.
Sunday saw three runners facing the starter and 2 of the Horses were from C.D.Katrak with Arts not being fancied from the betting point of view. Aristocratical belong to Mumbai based owners was the fancied horse and had the credentials to WIN. The favorite was Smokin Aces , who had WON impressively on Debut , but beating some Horses which were beaten comprehensively by Arts in an earlier race. Besides Arts and Aristocratical had the benefit of participating with some superior horses like Forest Flair , Versaki , Austral flash etc. in some highly visible prestigious races .
In most of the Three Horse races , all of them have a equal chance of scoring unless the Favorite is a Horse with impressive credentials like Set Alight or Oasis Star and the rest merely there to collect the stake money offered by the CLUB.We have seen many such races taking place and the result of most of them is a forgone conclusion .in this particular race , My reading did indicate that all three had a good chance but in view of past experience , Smoking Aces had no chance what so ever to WIN.
While no one can question the Bookies ODDS and the way the favorites are decided , what was shocking was the decision to make ARKS the pace setter for the race. Having being ridden off the pace in all the 3 starts , by deciding to send it to the front to ACT as a pacemaker to the FANCIED stable mate Aristocractical , the Horse was denied a chance to WIN the race. Not that it would have WON if it the earlier tactics was used .It may have lost , but that is a different matter.
The Owners being in Delhi may not mind this loss as there are several other races in the past / in the future which was given ( will be given ) on a platter when they decide to make a Visit to the race course .
Punters who bet on HORSES , do so on some assumptions.One of them being that the Horse would be given a fair chance to score and would be ridden in the same manner as earlier unless the race distance varies to a large extent.
In all the above three cases , punters who bet on them Lost out.
Who decides on whether a Enquiry is to be called for ?? The Stewards who are also Owners and big Gamblers decide on these matters , depending on the way the end result pans out.The race report and incidents can be seen on the official web site of the club.
But most of these enquiry cases are those in which these Stake holders are interested or when there is a genuine case of hooking a horse.
What needs to be done is to take action even in those cases , where a change in pattern of running is noticed and action taken irrespective of whether the Horse is a fancied runner or a Long shot as the end loser is always the Punter.
As Solor, Catalyst and Arts was tipped , I may come across as a Loser, complaining post race , but in reality a negative bet on Smokin Aces and a each way bet on Catalyst ensured that the I did not lose out .I am raising these issues as a normal punter who gets frustrated when Horses are not allowed to run on merit.
shyam
April 25, 2009
THE CASINO ROYALE MULTI-MILLION race day
these are my views on the races ;
1. VB races for horses in the lowest Class. Most of these races can be avoided for obvious reasons.
Solid Rock , Above All , Lady Trooper
Above All may have the edge as Owner will be looking for the DOUBLE post Uproar.
Strictly restricted to the first two as most runners have no form to go by.
Lady trooper if lucky can place ahead of Secret Agenda.
2.Another Vb race.
Elemento Trance looks very very difficult for even place at this handicap.
Can Can is not sighted in tracks but as field is mediocre can DO WELL. Last run was definitely dubious.
Viceroy is at bottom handicap but has not WON a race for AGES.May oblige here.
Brezhnev could have been considered but Jockey merit is a ???
Charlie Parker is far superior but the heat may take a toll.
3.Si Como No / Baskerville / Star Alliance.
Close fight expected but Si Como No gets the benefit for tracking well and having the services of a good jockey. The horse is also well bred to make a Winning Debut.
Baskerville has been given a couple of educative runs and hence may place.
Baskerville has been given a couple of educative runs and hence may place.
Sea Queen has done nothing till date to merit a BET though the horse has runn with superior horses.
4.Ran Banka / Marine Zone / Sioux Chief
Could go any which way but Ran Banka is preferred due to Jockey merit , Positive change in equipment and bottom handicap.
Marine Zone was not very much interested to topple Theorodus in race 204. May not run well on Sunday as it would be fancied runner
Golden Kingdom does not impress.May have a GO in Pune .
Siooux Chief did well under Jockey Parmar , Shivakumar has been found wanting on several occasions in mumbai. Not sure of his capabilities.Looks tough here.
Chieftan is the best Horse in the race but the change in Ownership and stables does indicate that there is something seriously wrong for it to be disposed off to a small time owner.
5.Kai / Catalyst / Wahy / You are the touch.
5.Kai / Catalyst / Wahy / You are the touch.
Kai after the First 2 wins lost out subsequently due to handicap and as it was meeting superior horses.This race does not have many Consistent rivals and hence it may be able to WIN again.
Catalyst is sure to place , last run with Srinath was for the bookies.
Youarethetouch will be tried tomorrow to recover the cost of maintenance till date. CAN UPSET.
Wahy , is far far superior to this field if One goes by the earlier record , can UPSET.
6.Snow Den / Slickkit / Theodoros.
Global Spirit at this weight can be ignored for even PLACE.
Snow Den is at a tidy handicap having gifted a race to Grand warrior earlier . A non winner but capable of striking at this handicap.
7.Arts / Aristrocratic / Smokin Aces .
Aristrocratic , Has seen better company , but is this run TOO SOON after the run last week is the moot point.
Arts : Last run over 1400 was not to its ability.Should do well here.Choice of Jockey is interesting.
8.Born to Lead / Siroco / The Rising .
I would go with the above Three.
9.Tsesebe / Tommy Carmicheal / Arbudh / Grand Warrior.
Tsesebe a demotee stands a good chance to score.
Alexus was gifted a race on DERBY Day. Not sure if it can repeat here.
Good day
Days best : Arts
Kainchi : Arts / Above All / Si Como No / Ran Banka / Kai / Snow Den
WILL PLACE : Viceroy / Solid Rock / WAHY / Born to Lead / Tsesebe
Shyam
April 24, 2009
Mumbai 25 th April
News update :
Jockey Riyaz Shaikh met with a fatal road accident on his way to Belgaum from Pune early yesterday morning.25-yr-old Riyaz, a resident of Pune, got his jockey’s license in 2005 and rode 18 winners during his brief career. Riyaz was trainer Altaf Hussain’s nephew and was serving a ban for a racing offence during Pune season when this disastrous incident happened.
Was a promising Jockey and did well when he did Duty for his Uncle.Rode many incompetent races for other trainers particularly when the horse was fancied for obvious reasons.Suspended for malpractices and for not allowing the Horse to run on merits.If not suspended i am sure he would have been riding in Mumbai and may have survived .
Shyam
hi all,
These are my choices for the day.
1.Solor / Highland Glory / Chamberlain
Highland Glory was a big letdown in race 110 particularly when seen in the context of its Pune performance in superior company.As it is raced sparingly there is always the doubt on form and fitness.Hence one cant Bet on these Horses with CONFIDENCE.
Solor , may have beaten some poorly rated horses but timings are indicative of its potential and class. Jockey entrusted is decent and the pull in the weights will make a difference to the outcome of this race.
Chamberlain : won over a scurry now pitted in a 1400 mts race.Bloodlines support longer distances.Only issue is the relative Jockey merit . Can upset.
Warcraft : another dubious Trainer who has failed to do justice to 99 % of the Horses under his care.Most of the times JUNK , incompetent , Dubious and Mediocre Jockeys are asked to ride and the horses lose out in the betting.Horse is Good and there is positive change of equipment but last run was pathetic though it was never in the betting. Can Do well but a RISKY BET.
Saba : Reject from I.A.Sait stable after the BIG Gamble failed in Pune. First run in mumbai and participating in a race after 6.5 Months. It would be prudent to avoid this Horse.
2.Tara : Each way
3 year old Horse's , who are non winners , running a 1800 race ????
Keep away as It is difficult to assess these Horses over this longer distance.Bloodlines are not going to help in this matter.
Snow Queen will be the rage considering the late effort in Cabriolet race over a MILE. Punters comfortable with the likes of Srinath may consider a bet BUT I would rather avoid a bet at LOW ODDS.
Sea Angel : Just one track after the previous run . Looks difficult.
Lone Monarch : capable of UPSET as judging by the entry the Trainer must have some confidence in the ability of this Colt over this distance.
Tara : Jodha , surprises once in a while.Latest tracks seen which is an indication of INTENT to strike.Each way would not be a BAD option.
3.Mr Greedy / Fiery Fortune
Miles and More : facing weak opposition but can the Horse carry 60.50 kgs and WIN with CHISTY in the saddle is the ??? , I would not risk a bet.
Skywards : Can hope to place. Last run was suggestive in the higher class. Only genuine class Horse in the field but last win was AGES ago.
Mr Greedy : Coming from class iv . Last run was pathetic but understandable as the filly was made to run every week.Now well rested. Can do well ONLY if it is NOT TAKEN TO THE FRONT by the Jockey in the initial stages of the race.
Fiery Fortune : Follow horse with advantage of the scales.Will not have to do anything spectacular.If the other horses cut a fast race and tire out Fiery Fortune will be able to beat most of them. GOOD EACH WAY.
4.Candy Floss / Mohabbi / Mia Stella.
Candly Floss is tracking well and is speedy enough to create a impression on debut.
Chotee Begum : Not over a sprint irrespective of its BLOODLINES.
Mia Stella , Jockey may be a red herring. Keep an eye.
Mohabbi ; Well bred , off spring of Diffident which do well over sprint distances.May be a bit under prepared but Place looks GOOD.
Opportunity : siblings have done well , trainer has another entry in this race. So a ???? on INTENT.
Peregrine Falcon : no track after previous run. Did well to finish a close 6 th on Debut. Not my bet.
Violetta : over this DISTANCE , unlikely to make an impression.
5.Rubidium / Pine Crest / Mischevious Trot.
Misch Trot : most of the times , the Horse loses in the betting. Intentions are not always NOBLE.However with the season coming to a close , most Horses would be tried to earn stake money.Should easily place.
War of Attrition : one of the most inconsistent horses ever seen.May do well but odds are not likely to be friendly to the wallets.
Golden Spurs : last run with mediocre Jockey was suggestive.Can Place here.
Pine Crest : Attractively place but Has not been very active in racing for past one year. Chance bet.Will be carrying only the Jockey weight and hence should easily place.
Rubidium : Second to Moon Storm in race 130. Horse is good enough to easily place.Can Also WIN but the negative factor is the Trainer who has a CLEAN SLATE this season. Can this be the First WIN ?? Can horses trained by these non performing Trainers be backed with confidence.Jockey is mediocre but does well for this GROUP.
6.Uproar / Any time Money / Free Spirit
Bad race better to keep away.
Free Spirit is a WINNER but at this handicap looks a difficult task.Also drawn 1 , if a good jump is not taken the Horse would find it difficult during the later stages of the race.
Notable Runner : Jockey Worst Rider in RWITC with a atrocious record till date. There is No confidence to back horses ridden by him for PLACE ALSO.
Polariser ; horse is very superior to many of those participating here. frequent changes in Stable , Owner , Jockey and its last RUN does not give confidence to back the horse. May place as most horses are backward or out handicapped.
Any time MoneY : WIN ?? Not with P S Chouhan.
UPROAR : the longest shot for the day.Will surely place.Jockey is for the odds.
Amaranza : big field , hence this 11 year OLD may not be able to sustain .
7.Blau Himmel ,Zippity Zip ( Shodaan ) Yowza .
Blau Himmel ; Last run was in much superior BUNCH. Can definitely do well here as most of the Horses have no recent form.Each way ON.
Shodaan : with SK Jadhav was able to finish 4 th . So TS Jodha surely can be expected to shine.May be withdrawn today.
Zippity Zip : Distance is not an issue as the Horse is bred to Stay. Can place.
Attractive Girl : Can hope to place.
Starlite Express : Controversial Horse due to the actions of the Jockeys in the recent past.Can hope to place if the jockey is up to the task.
Musical Rhythm : fair 2 nd to Lone Trojan , was not ridden hard. May PLACE at best.
Forest Native : pathetic riding effort by Shiva Kumar in race 190 which was WON by Lone Trojan.Feeble handling or else it was a race for this Horse.Looks difficult here as Jockey merit is not Good enough to merit a BET.Tograllu has not been doing well this season. At best place.
Aristrocratical : as consistent as the Trainer wishes it to be.
Yowza : Dark horse capable of UPSET.
Good day,
shyam
April 23, 2009
Debacle of Set Alight
The Internet chat rooms / web sites / blogs are yet to Finally come to a conclusion on the One single reason which lead to the downfall of Set Alight in the most prestigious race in the Indian racing calender.
But in this case everyone seems to pass on the buck and the credibility of all those concerned in this incident is at a all time low.After reading the reams of stories spun on the greatness and invincibility of Set Alight , all that One hears after the defeat is that the Horse lost out due to the lack of a sincere effort on the part of the jockey.The high moral pedestral taken by those concerned in this matter damns the position of that of a true and responsible racing professionals.
Just like Nero fiddled when Rome burned, all the participants in this fiasco are shamelessly defending themselves and sprouting technical nonsense without accepting that Set Alight was beaten FAIR and Square.
The cowardice exhibited by not accepting the Result , the Cowardice exhibited by defending an indefensible act , rather than accepting the truth and feeling guilty and remorseful about it is a disgrace to the racing community as a whole. To have imagined that the patrons believed and trusted in your WORDS and statements leading up to the derby is nauseating and repulsive !
In the tradition and culture we all live it is time a transparent, honest and sincere assessment of the race is to be made by those who Defend Set Alight rather than trying to shift the Blame to those who don't matter.
When you are a leader, you take the blame, you face it upfront, you protect your team, you bear the brunt and at the end of it all, you accept the mistake, you apologize and you walk away with dignity.
But in this case everyone seems to pass on the buck and the credibility of all those concerned in this incident is at a all time low.After reading the reams of stories spun on the greatness and invincibility of Set Alight , all that One hears after the defeat is that the Horse lost out due to the lack of a sincere effort on the part of the jockey.The high moral pedestral taken by those concerned in this matter damns the position of that of a true and responsible racing professionals.
Just like Nero fiddled when Rome burned, all the participants in this fiasco are shamelessly defending themselves and sprouting technical nonsense without accepting that Set Alight was beaten FAIR and Square.
The cowardice exhibited by not accepting the Result , the Cowardice exhibited by defending an indefensible act , rather than accepting the truth and feeling guilty and remorseful about it is a disgrace to the racing community as a whole. To have imagined that the patrons believed and trusted in your WORDS and statements leading up to the derby is nauseating and repulsive !
In the tradition and culture we all live it is time a transparent, honest and sincere assessment of the race is to be made by those who Defend Set Alight rather than trying to shift the Blame to those who don't matter.
When you are a leader, you take the blame, you face it upfront, you protect your team, you bear the brunt and at the end of it all, you accept the mistake, you apologize and you walk away with dignity.
April 20, 2009
Kainchi Bet
Hi all,
As many of you are aware , i put in my choices for the races and at the end i put in the Kainchi Bet.
Many a visitor has enquired about the Kainchi bet , the advantages of such a bet and the calculations to be made to arrive at the payout .
It is not possible to post excel sheets directly in the blog as the feature is currently not available.I have summarised the details at this link ;
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p9ajssVaiwRqAjCl6dgxDNA
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p9ajssVaiwRqAjCl6dgxDNA&hl=en
To put it in simple terms , Kainchi is a COMBINATION bet where in the punter can opt for his Choice of HORSES in different races .This bet would yield astronomical returns if all the Horses in the Combination come through .Goes without saying that the yield would depend on the ODDS.
This bet is considered superior to the Treble , Mini Jackpot or Jackpot for the simple reason that in all those bets if one of the Horses fail , the punter stands to lose the Total Investment.In all these bets which are conducted by the respective race Clubs.The races are usually consecutive for these bets but in a kainchi the the Choice of races is decided by the Punter.
The Kainchis combinations bets usually accepted are 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 .
The Combinations available in these would be 4 -11 -26 - 57 respectively .
A Rs 100 Kainchi would cost the punter Rs 400 / 1100 / 2600 / 5700 respectively.
It essentially means that Rs 100 is invested on the First Nominated Horse and then the Roll Over effect begins to operate from then on .
If all the selected horses are succesful ( WIN Kainchi or Place kainchi ) you stand to receive payments for all combinations referred to above .
If One Horse does not come through , then the payment would be for the rest of the successful combinations.
However a Minimum 2 Horses have to come through for a successful bet.If only One Horse is successful the Investment is Lost.
Illustration for the Kainchi combination :
3 Horse Kainchi would lead to 4 Combinations which are :
AB , AC , BC and AB C
where ABC are the 3 selected Horses.
Payout would be for 4 Combinations consisting of 3 doubles and 1 Single straight Roll .
For a FOUR HORSE Kainchi , the 11 Combinations are 6 Doubles 4 Trebles and ONE Straight ROLL as under:
a b , a c, a d , b c , b d , c d : SIX Doubles
abc , abd , acd , bcd : Four Trebles
and ABCD : One Straight Roll
In the above case , If all Horses are successful you get the payment for 11 combinations .If One fails then the payout would be for 4 Combinations.
In case one of the Horse in the Kainchi bet is withdrawn the payout would still be good enough as the Number of Combinations would remain the same , only the returns reduced.
The Excel sheet gives the payout details under various permutations and combinations.
Kindly make sure that only these details are entered :
Bet Size ( which is taken as 1000 in the working ) No details to be entered in the Colored Boxes as they contain the formula.The Bet size is to be mentioned in line 13,29 or 32 as the case may be.
The odds on the Horses as confirmed by the bookie .In case this is based on the tote payout then the Tote Dividend PAID less Rs 10 would be the ODDS to be recorded in the Sheet.This is to be recorded in Column D - lines 9 , 10, 11 etc.,
In case the Horse Loses , then the the ODDS to be recorded would be - 1 ( meaning MINUS 1 ) Automatically the formula would calculate the dividend for the Winning Combinations only.
In case the Horse is withdrawn after the bet is accepted then the ODDs to be recorded would
be 0 ( ZERO )
Hope this information was useful,
good day,
shyam
April 18, 2009
Eclipse Stakes Trophy : Race day
1.Bad race to start with. Both fancied runners CLAS and Solskjaer are inconsistent and hence not reliable.Trainers do not ensure a Honest ride on most occasions.
I would rather have a go at Refuse to bend or Amaranza for place , depending on race time odds.
Wells Fargo is capable of a Upset.
2.Destined Prince , Caramel , Stud of Gold.
the Trophy is named after Jonty Rhodes a horse trained by Karanjawala , which was owned by the current owners of Walking Tall. As can be expected from this stable , Horses oblige only when it is not fancied.At this handicap , looks difficult.
Crespo : good horse , but being ridden by the worst Jockey in the Mumbai circuit.There is no second opinion on this .
Thundering Star ; Once upon a time was a Lagad Favorite.Discarded Horses rarely do well.
Stud of Gold : last run was forward. Jockey may not be able to do justice to the mount.
Caramel ; can hope to place.
Destined Prince : based on the run in race 6 , is a contender for the TOP spot. Good each way.
Mister Fixit : Not here.
3.Hugo Boss / Ming / Call to Arms.
Czar Alexander's chances are not as rosy as projected. Going to be very difficult to Win under testing conditions.
Hugo Boss ; came off the pace to finish a good 4 th to the Long shot SEA STORM . May be long in tooth but has the class to hack the field.
Ming : was interfered in race 142.WILL PLACE.
Call to Arms :frequent change of Jockeys and distance ???
4.Captain Smart / Black Falcon / Trigance.
As always these races are Quite OPEN and choice of Jockey does not make a great difference to the outcome of the race.
Captain Smart is a forward runner and should do well here.Good each way.
Trigance with medicre V.Naiko did well to finish 4 th to Arts.Stands a good chance here with stronger saddle assistance.
Great White has only disappointed. Tactics of using third class jockeys for 3 year old's has failed . Can D Grant make a difference ??
Mariposa was a fancied runner in race 150. Lost out in the betting itself.Performed miserably. Not sure if Mediocre Jockey Aadesh Kumar can dio well here though Bloodlines of the FILLY are the BEST.
5.Recardo , Princess Ruby : Both closely matched.
.Difficult to see any third horse obliging
Dancing Glory / La Joie De Vie : One of the TWO will place.
6.Sun Burst / Dangerous Belle / Mysterious Heights.
First run of Sun Burst was encouraging. With the apprentice Jockey , the horse can do well if taken to the front.
Dangerous Belle did the front running in race 165 which was over 1200 metres.With 200 metres less and a Upcoming Jockey declared to ride , it makes sense to back this Horse each way.
Mysterious Heights : at best place.
Last Night Sonnet is well placed on handicap.
Tehrani is entrusted to Shammi Khan , Ignored.
7.Confiserie / River Blitz / Adriana.
Second named is likely to be fancied but WINNING this 1200 metres race looks a bit difficult.
Adriana is very good for PLACE.
Aristrocratic has seen better horses but coming after 2 months .That raises questions on fitness and form.
Confiserie is from Sprungli , a class 1 Horse belonging to the same owner.Showing out in track work.If Jockey Nirmal Jodha offers minimum support also Horse should easily place.
8. Nitrous : Chance bet.
Hugo : Place.
Maseeha : Each way.
One cant expect Race 83 to be repeated here though the handicap of the horses have remained have not changed a lot.
Diego Riveria : CAN WIN. But i would NOT risk a bet.The highest rated horse with powerful finishing abilities. Has Done well over various distances , well rested.Should do well.
Hugo : keep an eye can upset.Owner's Yana may be the rage but at times the unfancied HUGO surprises one and all.
Spinoza : was a seasoned campaigner earlier.Seems to have lost its form.
Angelique : not here.
Nitrous : Handicap in FAVOUR.Can upset.The Horse has failed repeatedly in Mumbai but all those runs were at Top Handicap. Hence i would take a Chance today , as the weights are appealing.
Yana : will find it difficult to beat seasoned campaigners like Diego Riveria and Cotswold Arms.After losing to Angelique , it is difficult to consider YANA. Horse is bred to stay and Pune runs were excellent but at mumbai the horse is found wanting. CAN WIN but not worth at the ODDS.
Cotswold Arms : Toyed with Secret Pilgrim last week. Has been very consistent.Should place , unless the frequent participation in the races has taken a toll on the Horse.Stable mate is the fancied runner.If one has to bet, then Place seems a good option with token bets for WIN and SHP.
Maseeeha : in line for a hatrick.At this handicap a Very Strong CONTENDER.
9.Hi Dolly / Resilience / Up North .
Vb race , have a look at race time odds and bet accordingly making sure to avoid the FAVORITE at race time.
good day,
Good for Each way : DESTINED PRINCE , MING , CAPTAIN SMART , PRINCESS RUBY , DANGEROUS BELLE ,CONFISERIE , MASEEHA and Hi DOLLY.
shyam
I would rather have a go at Refuse to bend or Amaranza for place , depending on race time odds.
Wells Fargo is capable of a Upset.
2.Destined Prince , Caramel , Stud of Gold.
the Trophy is named after Jonty Rhodes a horse trained by Karanjawala , which was owned by the current owners of Walking Tall. As can be expected from this stable , Horses oblige only when it is not fancied.At this handicap , looks difficult.
Crespo : good horse , but being ridden by the worst Jockey in the Mumbai circuit.There is no second opinion on this .
Thundering Star ; Once upon a time was a Lagad Favorite.Discarded Horses rarely do well.
Stud of Gold : last run was forward. Jockey may not be able to do justice to the mount.
Caramel ; can hope to place.
Destined Prince : based on the run in race 6 , is a contender for the TOP spot. Good each way.
Mister Fixit : Not here.
3.Hugo Boss / Ming / Call to Arms.
Czar Alexander's chances are not as rosy as projected. Going to be very difficult to Win under testing conditions.
Hugo Boss ; came off the pace to finish a good 4 th to the Long shot SEA STORM . May be long in tooth but has the class to hack the field.
Ming : was interfered in race 142.WILL PLACE.
Call to Arms :frequent change of Jockeys and distance ???
4.Captain Smart / Black Falcon / Trigance.
As always these races are Quite OPEN and choice of Jockey does not make a great difference to the outcome of the race.
Captain Smart is a forward runner and should do well here.Good each way.
Trigance with medicre V.Naiko did well to finish 4 th to Arts.Stands a good chance here with stronger saddle assistance.
Great White has only disappointed. Tactics of using third class jockeys for 3 year old's has failed . Can D Grant make a difference ??
Mariposa was a fancied runner in race 150. Lost out in the betting itself.Performed miserably. Not sure if Mediocre Jockey Aadesh Kumar can dio well here though Bloodlines of the FILLY are the BEST.
5.Recardo , Princess Ruby : Both closely matched.
.Difficult to see any third horse obliging
Dancing Glory / La Joie De Vie : One of the TWO will place.
6.Sun Burst / Dangerous Belle / Mysterious Heights.
First run of Sun Burst was encouraging. With the apprentice Jockey , the horse can do well if taken to the front.
Dangerous Belle did the front running in race 165 which was over 1200 metres.With 200 metres less and a Upcoming Jockey declared to ride , it makes sense to back this Horse each way.
Mysterious Heights : at best place.
Last Night Sonnet is well placed on handicap.
Tehrani is entrusted to Shammi Khan , Ignored.
7.Confiserie / River Blitz / Adriana.
Second named is likely to be fancied but WINNING this 1200 metres race looks a bit difficult.
Adriana is very good for PLACE.
Aristrocratic has seen better horses but coming after 2 months .That raises questions on fitness and form.
Confiserie is from Sprungli , a class 1 Horse belonging to the same owner.Showing out in track work.If Jockey Nirmal Jodha offers minimum support also Horse should easily place.
8. Nitrous : Chance bet.
Hugo : Place.
Maseeha : Each way.
One cant expect Race 83 to be repeated here though the handicap of the horses have remained have not changed a lot.
Diego Riveria : CAN WIN. But i would NOT risk a bet.The highest rated horse with powerful finishing abilities. Has Done well over various distances , well rested.Should do well.
Hugo : keep an eye can upset.Owner's Yana may be the rage but at times the unfancied HUGO surprises one and all.
Spinoza : was a seasoned campaigner earlier.Seems to have lost its form.
Angelique : not here.
Nitrous : Handicap in FAVOUR.Can upset.The Horse has failed repeatedly in Mumbai but all those runs were at Top Handicap. Hence i would take a Chance today , as the weights are appealing.
Yana : will find it difficult to beat seasoned campaigners like Diego Riveria and Cotswold Arms.After losing to Angelique , it is difficult to consider YANA. Horse is bred to stay and Pune runs were excellent but at mumbai the horse is found wanting. CAN WIN but not worth at the ODDS.
Cotswold Arms : Toyed with Secret Pilgrim last week. Has been very consistent.Should place , unless the frequent participation in the races has taken a toll on the Horse.Stable mate is the fancied runner.If one has to bet, then Place seems a good option with token bets for WIN and SHP.
Maseeeha : in line for a hatrick.At this handicap a Very Strong CONTENDER.
9.Hi Dolly / Resilience / Up North .
Vb race , have a look at race time odds and bet accordingly making sure to avoid the FAVORITE at race time.
good day,
Good for Each way : DESTINED PRINCE , MING , CAPTAIN SMART , PRINCESS RUBY , DANGEROUS BELLE ,CONFISERIE , MASEEHA and Hi DOLLY.
shyam
April 17, 2009
Saturday 18 th april : Mumbai Races
my choices for the day ,
1.Desdemona / Lusty / Ibis.
Jockey merit should see Desdemona Win this race.Did well to finish 3 rd to Sheikha on debut.The next run was in the PBMM where it was not expected to do well. Tracking well should WIN , but will the odds be Good enough is the ???
Lusty is from the Top rated trainer Ivor Fernandes ( who incidently has the CHAMPION jockey R.Shelar astride another Horse of His named Sunny Island ) Purely for Jockey merit , TS Jodha can be expected to Place on Lusty.
Ibis sees controvesial rider PS Chouhan doing duty.If his MONEY is on the Horse , he may try else will be a lost cause.
Pound Foolish has hardly been tracked and so IGNORED.
2.Balance De Power , Fiery Fortune , Arkhos ( no recent track work )
BDP has no worthwhile opposition . But one needs to factor in the RECORD of this OWNER / TRAINER / JOCKEY Combination as the % of failure is VERY HIGH. Most of the Horses which start as favorites from this Combination usually burst blood vessel.If the odds are below .60 , not worth a BET.
Rococo, came in after a long layoff , did finish 4 th to prince Lochniva , but not sure if it can Do well here.
Fiery Fortune if LUCKY can upset.
3. Sea Treasure , Irish Queen
Sea treasure was a fair second to Forest Flair which WON later beating some quality opposition. Hence gets the NOD ahead of fancied runners.
Blue Danube was the most impressive Winner over 1000 metres in race 118.That was on 15 th March .After that there is JUST One solitary Track work on 12/04/2009. No Swimming Activity.
Champion Trainer Shroff , usually works his Horses very frequently even if they are the best in the field. So this lack of track work for nearly a MONTH is a matter of Concern.Will start as favorite and is capable of cantering away but definitely not my BET.
Irish Queen looks good for place.
4.Tora Bora Or Claim to Fame .
Critical Acclaim and Guns n Roses for third spot.
Tora Bora was a impressive third to Versaki on debut , though the margin was 10 lenghts. Being tracked often , has the best credentials to SCORE.
Claim to fame : was badly hampered for Room in race 150. Positive change of equipment does indicate intent to Strike.
Moon Flower and Riding Fantasy , both lost to the fast finishing Anantasia.Looks difficult here.
Critical Acclaim is well bred to make an impression on debut.Only issue is the mediocre Jockey.
5.Vb race. Horses rated 00 to 26 .
Theodoros lost to Double Delite in a race for Horses rated 00 - 19.Should Logically WIN but definitely not worth as the odds would be negligible.
Solid Rock has been extensively worked in the POOL.Is the only threat to the Fancied runner.
Bold Act , last run was forward. Can hope to place.
Black Partridge ; jockey is mediocre.
Statjford ; May be fancied , bloodlines are good enough but intent may be lacking.
6.Ekhabinskya / Moon Storm / Clarion Call / Casual Look.
Tight race to call as the initial speed will decide the outcome of the race.
I would prefer the First Two named ahead of Clarion Call which is not a Sprinter.
Highland Bounty was Gifted a race recently for obvious reasons on the HDIL OAKS day.May not even place here.
7.Pomme De Terre , Hidden Danger , Polariser.
Pomme De Terre is Fit for only 1000 metres race. Earlier run was over 1200 and hence to be Ignored.Good each way.
Polariser has seen change in Ownership / Trainer many times .Many a time the horse has lost in the betting as it was sacrificed for the Favorite.If tried , will be a Live threat .
Hidden Danger was allowed to be withdrawn to ENABLE the Sponsor WIN a race on the HDIL Oaks Day. Can hope to place.
Going by the comments above and based on the likely payout for the Winners, it does seem that Racing is not going to be FUN unless some LONG SHOTS oblige in the Last 3 races.As we are left with limited options in the first 4 races, the chances of UPSETS in those events are ruled out.
Races can be avoided if any other useful alternate activity is on the cards.
Would not recommend any individual bets on these horses as the yield does not justify the risk. At best a Roll bet can be considered.
Days Best : Desdemona
Kainchi : Desdemona / Balance de power / Sea treasure / Tora Bora / Theodoros.
( except for Tora Bora the rest may offer less than EVEN Money if it WINS. Definitely not worth )
good for Place : Claim to Fame / Solid Rock / Ekhabinskya / Pomme De Terre.
( this seems reasonable )
Good day
Shyam
TO ALL SET ALIGHT FANS
This article was in the Comments section of the Blog.Not many go through the comments and hence this is posted here.
SHYAM
None of the websites (India Race and Racing Pulse) are posting my articles.I guess they are favouring some camp.
I had the privilege to witness the running of the 130th Belmont Stakes. All thanks to my cousin who owns quite a few horses in USA.
Belmont Stakes is the last leg in the Triple Crown run over a distance of 2400m and the stage doesn’t get any bigger than this.
Real Quite was bidding for the Triple Crown as he had already won the first two legs
The first two legs of the American Triple Crown are run over a distance of 2000m and 1910m respectively
The aura of invincibility that was tagged to Real Quite is just like the one carried by Set Alight for The Indian Derby
I am comparing these two races (Belmont Stakes and Indian Derby) because there is a lot in common in the build up and the actual running of the race. Before I make my point please don’t even let it cross your mind that I am comparing the quality of these animals.Thats not the case.
Real Quite had comfortably defeated Victory Gallop in the first two legs which were run over a shorter trip in comparison to Belmont stakes that is run over 2400m.
I now cut copy paste and article from CNN Sports Illustrated for all SET ALIGHT fans and connections ( Pesi ) to read and learn the true meaning of horse racing and sportsmanship. This article is also directed to the racing correspondents of Indian Racing who are biased and are out there to collect brownie points.
QUOTE:
Real Close
Victory Gallop takes Belmont Stakes by a nose
Posted: Saturday June 06, 1998 07:40 PM
ELMONT, New York (AP) -- The colt they called The Fish was headed for the Triple Crown -- and then he got caught. "The Fish was floundering at the end," said Bob Baffert, trainer of The Fish, known to everyone else as Real Quiet. And as he floundered, Victory Gallop, runner-up to Real Quiet in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, drove down the stretch and nailed him in the final stride of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.
If Victory Gallop hadn't finished ahead of Real Quiet, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner would have been disqualified for bumping his rival in the stretch.
"Even if he had won, we would have taken him down," said Dave Hicks, the New York Racing Association steward. "He was tired," Baffert said of Real Quiet. "He was done, he was beat, he ran his heart out."
"If we didn't win, we'd just as soon see Real Quiet win," said winning trainer Elliott Walden. Then he added: "I think it's fair we turned the tables." Real Quiet took the lead from Chilito three-eighths of a mile from home, and the crowd of 80,162 -- the second-largest in Belmont history -- roared its approval. It appeared Real Quiet was about to become racing's 12th Triple Crown winner and the first since Affirmed in 1978. He also was on the verge of avenging his stablemate, Silver Charm, who last year finished second in the Belmont. "I might have moved prematurely," said Kent Desormeaux, Real Quiet's jockey.
"It hurts a lot to have come so far and not get there. I felt it [the victory] for a moment," he said.
Gary Stevens, who rode Victory Gallop, knew exactly what Desormeaux was going through. Stevens was on Silver Charm last year. "My heart goes out to the connections of Real Quiet," Stevens said. "They did a good job the last three weeks. I know what it feels like." Stevens also gave a nod to racing luck when he said, "With any luck at all, we would have been winning the Triple Crown."
Victory Gallop, who had to race wide all the way in the Derby, just missed catching Real Quiet by a half-length. He was beaten by 2 1/4 lengths in the Preakness. "It's a letdown," Baffert said. "You don't get used to losing. I knew it was snatched away again. Gary rode a brilliant race." Victory Gallop's winning time was 2:29 and he paid $11, $3.60 and $3.20. Real Quiet returned $3 and $2.60 and Thomas Jo was $5.30 to show.
Real Quiet went off at 4-5. He was the 31st odds-on favorite in the Belmont since 1940. Seattle Slew was the 11th and last to win in 1977. Victory Gallop earned $600,000 from a $1 million purse. Real Quiet, owned by Mike Pegram, settled for $200,000 and was denied a $5 million purse offered by Visa to any horse who could sweep the three races.
While Real Quiet was fifth and in contention down the backstretch, Victory Gallop was 10th in the field of 11 3-year-olds. On the turn, Real Quiet took the lead from Chilito, and the crowd went crazy, sensing history in the making.
At that point, Victory Gallop was just another Belmont starter. Down the stretch came Real Quiet, and the crowd noise reached a crescendo. But there were gasps as the leader became rubber-legged and Victory Gallop came on and on -- and won.
"I knew I had a lot of horse throughout the race," Stevens said, although for much of the running he might have been the only one who realized that. "But I didn't know I had it until we hit the finish line," he added. "Right after the Derby, we felt the race we had the best chance in was the Belmont," said the 35-year-old Walden, who wore crutches to the biggest victory of his and his colt's career. The 6-foot-4 trainer broke his right ankle in a 3-on-3 basketball game about 10 days ago.
"This horse is suited to 1 1/2 miles," said Walden, who trains Victory Gallop for brothers Art, Jack and J.R. Preston of Houston. "He's very tenacious, As Gary says, he finds room. He's really blossomed the last week. As the week went on, I got more confident."
Chris McCarron, who rode Thomas Jo and who also was on Alysheba when that horse finished fourth in the Belmont in a bid for the Triple Crown in 1987, had some advice for Desormeaux.
"Chris told me you're going to feel horrible the next week," Desormeaux said, "But don't worry about it. It's absolutely just another horse race." Baffert also tried to console Desormeaux "It's not your fault," he told the jockey. "Your ride was good. You ran out of horse; that was my fault." All Desormeaux knew was it wasn't just another horse race and that he had gotten beat in a bid for the Triple Crown.
"You come so far and get so close," he said, "and then it's all gone."
UNQUOTE
April 16, 2009
Extra race day @ Kolkata
A pathetic race card with friendly entries making up half the entries in each of the 7 races.
If the dividend on any of these horses are below 4 to1 for WIN or less than EVEN money for place i would not have any bets as it is not worth the effort.
1.Golden Image and Going Starry .
Latter seems to be a good bet for place.
Season ending GIFT for Golden Image is on the cards.
2. Flirting Eye / Best Bet .
Murano is capable of surprising.
3.Moment of Love , Bach.
4.Sephora , Art of War.
5.Algorithms , Astro Boy.
6.Chagall , Sporting Master , Solid Sucess
7.Cromwell , Piato , Apostrophe.
good LUCK ,
shyam
If the dividend on any of these horses are below 4 to1 for WIN or less than EVEN money for place i would not have any bets as it is not worth the effort.
1.Golden Image and Going Starry .
Latter seems to be a good bet for place.
Season ending GIFT for Golden Image is on the cards.
2. Flirting Eye / Best Bet .
Murano is capable of surprising.
3.Moment of Love , Bach.
4.Sephora , Art of War.
5.Algorithms , Astro Boy.
6.Chagall , Sporting Master , Solid Sucess
7.Cromwell , Piato , Apostrophe.
good LUCK ,
shyam
April 15, 2009
16 th April , 2009 Kolkata races
Not a keen follower of kolkata racing so do have a look at race time odds before considering these choices.Horses which are made to run every race meet are not considered .The cruelty to the hapless Horse by the hopeless Third class trainers in Kolkata deserves only condemnation.
1.Smiles and Memorable Verse : Both should easily place.
Amber Cat is from BATH who had 4 winners on previous race day. Not sure if the intent to WIN will be there on Thursday.
Most of the other jockeys declared to ride dont inspire confidence.
2. Aragon , Italian Splendour .
On Jockey merit I.S seems superior but Aragon is better bred .
Casabella looks goods in this bunch. Can hope to place.
3.Asiatique , Arcella
Most of the runners have no credibility.
Asiatique is a double demotee , may be ignored due to top weight , has a good chance.
Arcella is running after a long break. Jockey is not having a good record but can do well here.
4. India Jones , Roxy : Restricted to these 2 horses .
Certainty for place would be ROXY.
Bright Blossom and Brave Move : One of these horses can hope to place.
5.Simply Perfect , Swiss King , Alamgir.
Vignet at this handicap looks difficult though the Jockey has been doing well off late at this centre.
Swiss King is the PLACE Certainty for the DAY.
Alamgir has a good rider ( by kolkata standards ) , should do well.
6.She's Superb , Thousand Stars , Great Heart .
Too many contenders and hence Jockey merit will decide the Winner.
7.Fabulous Emperor , Crown Princess , Mangalya Prarambh.
Horses are Closely matched with Crown Princess coming from the lower class.
Mangalya Prarambh was given a couple of dubious runs. Will be a live threat in this race.
Fabulous Emperor has the class to easily place.hence Good each way.
Askarel has done well at Bottom handicap.Can it carry 60 kgs and yet do well is the ????
8.Regal Appeal , Rebellious , Sangoma.
Based on the last run Regal Appeal gets the NOD though the opposition in race 176 was not in the same league.
Rebellious was seen moving well in previous outing.May place at Longer odds.
The consistent Sangoma should place easily.
Good day,
shyam
1.Smiles and Memorable Verse : Both should easily place.
Amber Cat is from BATH who had 4 winners on previous race day. Not sure if the intent to WIN will be there on Thursday.
Most of the other jockeys declared to ride dont inspire confidence.
2. Aragon , Italian Splendour .
On Jockey merit I.S seems superior but Aragon is better bred .
Casabella looks goods in this bunch. Can hope to place.
3.Asiatique , Arcella
Most of the runners have no credibility.
Asiatique is a double demotee , may be ignored due to top weight , has a good chance.
Arcella is running after a long break. Jockey is not having a good record but can do well here.
4. India Jones , Roxy : Restricted to these 2 horses .
Certainty for place would be ROXY.
Bright Blossom and Brave Move : One of these horses can hope to place.
5.Simply Perfect , Swiss King , Alamgir.
Vignet at this handicap looks difficult though the Jockey has been doing well off late at this centre.
Swiss King is the PLACE Certainty for the DAY.
Alamgir has a good rider ( by kolkata standards ) , should do well.
6.She's Superb , Thousand Stars , Great Heart .
Too many contenders and hence Jockey merit will decide the Winner.
7.Fabulous Emperor , Crown Princess , Mangalya Prarambh.
Horses are Closely matched with Crown Princess coming from the lower class.
Mangalya Prarambh was given a couple of dubious runs. Will be a live threat in this race.
Fabulous Emperor has the class to easily place.hence Good each way.
Askarel has done well at Bottom handicap.Can it carry 60 kgs and yet do well is the ????
8.Regal Appeal , Rebellious , Sangoma.
Based on the last run Regal Appeal gets the NOD though the opposition in race 176 was not in the same league.
Rebellious was seen moving well in previous outing.May place at Longer odds.
The consistent Sangoma should place easily.
Good day,
shyam
April 13, 2009
A Stood for Antonios
not Abs Fabs or Autonomy and the " V " sign also was for Antonios not the horse sporting the alphabet " V " Veera Wang.
and Sucess stood for S S SHAH , not Shroff or Set Alight or Star Presentation.
At the end of it all the Vanquisher is still yet to get due credit from the racing fraternity , save the odd quote / remark from the professionals , ie ; the Owners , Trainers or Jockeys who have gladly welcomed the new Hero without ignoring the Heroine.
However all that the Punters are looking at is at pointing fingers and trying to locate the Villains. Maturity among the racing public is yet to be seen or heard and this has been the BANE of the community for a long time.Every time the Horse which is fancied Loses the conspiracy theory comes out immediately and all discussion forums are focused on this rather than looking at the positive features of the event / winner.
The only honesty in this incident is that , 90 % of those who start commenting on the CONSPIRACY Theory dont back even a PENNY ( at these odds ) and that is the unfortunate truth.It is easy to mention this , as the odds quoted were so low , that only a " Financier " would see VALUE in the BET ( 40 % return on investment in a matter of a few minutes ) Educated PUNTERS would not BET based this method.
A Winner was BORN yet people are here discussing as if the fancied Horse had departed from us.People instead of applauding the NEW Winner , start doubting the credentials of the Winner attributing the Victory to LUCK or to factors beyond racing.
So here's a TOAST to ANTONOIS / S De Souza / S S Shah and his team and also to the owners who are fortunate to taste success.
Coming back to the post mortem ,
Here , there is no doubt in any one's mind that Set Alight is among the best filly seen in recent times and also the Best Horse in the age for distances varying from 1400 to 2000. Beyond that is a matter of perception and speculation , as at the end of the day the Horse with the superior bloodlines and those bred to STAY has a Moral advantage.Many races are decided by tactics used and if it succeeds then the person managing the show is a HERO else he is condemned to be a Zero.The pressure to perform in all these HIGH profile races is unbelievable particularly for those who are involved with the fancied runners.It is not a easy task and finding faults , post event is not the right thing to do.Some of the comments are so weird that it wont even qualify for the
" believe it or not , television show "
Transparency is the key.All actions which give room for doubts ( or suspicions ) should be clarified before hand to avoid controversy at a later stage , particularly with reference to choice of rider declared or the training methods adopted .This is required , as everyone concerned , save the trainer felt that FILLY was OVERSTRETCHED for a month.
Due to the delayed start in the racing season and adverse weather conditions , many horses in Mumbai are not tracked .This is being done to conserve the resources as it is a tough task to run under these conditions.Even if the last spurt was 20 days earlier , the Horse can maintain fitness.Many have managed to WIN .
The Jinx of the EVENT , the incompetence of the Jockey , the tactics adopted are all secondary.The Focus should be on the means adopted by the trainer to achieve SUCCESS . Most of the horses in the fray were given 7 or 8 days work out in the past 40 days.Shroff made Set Alight run 2 races and then the Filly was made to toil for another 20 days.That surely deserves some condemnation. If this was to ensure fitness and performance , then surely he is not Competent to be a trainer as it indicates lack of confidence in its capabilities even after it WON several classics. Why enter it in the prestigious race ??
I have seen this tactic failing with DYNASTY and KIARA
( both having same owner , C.Glenn and M.Dubash ).
They were made to participate in races held in Pune ,Mumbai ,bangalore and Mysore at regular intervals giving no scope to recover from the tiring journey and regular racing.In fact Dynasty visited Hyderabad and Kolkata also.
All of us wanted the Queen FILLY , SET ALIGHT to WIN in style and end up as the Only Horse to move ahead for the future engagements with an unbeaten record , but that was not to be.
Shroff is the person against whom the ire has to directed at , not the Jockey.If Jockey failed in his responsibility , even then the blame is on the Trainer, reason being , the background , the character and the Previous HISTORY of the Jockey was a well known fact prior to the races.
Vijay Mallya's Aquitaine failed as a Favorite in a class III race but when the odds were considered GOOD enough it ,WON effortlessly in both class II and CLASS I , there by reversing form in a matter of a few days.
SpearHead ,Astral Flash , Chevron , Congratulations and many others flourished at lucrative odds while many others lost when asked to DELIVER to low odds.
Many other instances can be quoted but are preserved for another day.
Any coincidence in these matters is only for logical reasoning.
So you reap what you SOW.
so here COMES Antonios ,
and Sucess stood for S S SHAH , not Shroff or Set Alight or Star Presentation.
At the end of it all the Vanquisher is still yet to get due credit from the racing fraternity , save the odd quote / remark from the professionals , ie ; the Owners , Trainers or Jockeys who have gladly welcomed the new Hero without ignoring the Heroine.
However all that the Punters are looking at is at pointing fingers and trying to locate the Villains. Maturity among the racing public is yet to be seen or heard and this has been the BANE of the community for a long time.Every time the Horse which is fancied Loses the conspiracy theory comes out immediately and all discussion forums are focused on this rather than looking at the positive features of the event / winner.
The only honesty in this incident is that , 90 % of those who start commenting on the CONSPIRACY Theory dont back even a PENNY ( at these odds ) and that is the unfortunate truth.It is easy to mention this , as the odds quoted were so low , that only a " Financier " would see VALUE in the BET ( 40 % return on investment in a matter of a few minutes ) Educated PUNTERS would not BET based this method.
A Winner was BORN yet people are here discussing as if the fancied Horse had departed from us.People instead of applauding the NEW Winner , start doubting the credentials of the Winner attributing the Victory to LUCK or to factors beyond racing.
So here's a TOAST to ANTONOIS / S De Souza / S S Shah and his team and also to the owners who are fortunate to taste success.
Coming back to the post mortem ,
Here , there is no doubt in any one's mind that Set Alight is among the best filly seen in recent times and also the Best Horse in the age for distances varying from 1400 to 2000. Beyond that is a matter of perception and speculation , as at the end of the day the Horse with the superior bloodlines and those bred to STAY has a Moral advantage.Many races are decided by tactics used and if it succeeds then the person managing the show is a HERO else he is condemned to be a Zero.The pressure to perform in all these HIGH profile races is unbelievable particularly for those who are involved with the fancied runners.It is not a easy task and finding faults , post event is not the right thing to do.Some of the comments are so weird that it wont even qualify for the
" believe it or not , television show "
Transparency is the key.All actions which give room for doubts ( or suspicions ) should be clarified before hand to avoid controversy at a later stage , particularly with reference to choice of rider declared or the training methods adopted .This is required , as everyone concerned , save the trainer felt that FILLY was OVERSTRETCHED for a month.
Due to the delayed start in the racing season and adverse weather conditions , many horses in Mumbai are not tracked .This is being done to conserve the resources as it is a tough task to run under these conditions.Even if the last spurt was 20 days earlier , the Horse can maintain fitness.Many have managed to WIN .
Under these circumstances the decision to make Set Alight , WORK every other alternate day is a CRIME. PERIOD . Most of us , meaning , the racing patrons and commentators condemn the small time trainers , who regularly run the 10 / 11/ 12 year old's in other centres , saying that it is a CRIME to make them RUN at this age so often.At least the horses were made to RUN once a week.Here Mr Pesi Shroff made Set Alight sweat every day under humid conditions.How can a filly do well after those gruelling training sessions ?? That has to be explained by those who speak for HER .If punters put in their HARD EARNED money even after Looking into this aspect . then they THEMSELVES are to BLAME.Why blame the Jockey and Trainer after the RACE.
The Jinx of the EVENT , the incompetence of the Jockey , the tactics adopted are all secondary.The Focus should be on the means adopted by the trainer to achieve SUCCESS . Most of the horses in the fray were given 7 or 8 days work out in the past 40 days.Shroff made Set Alight run 2 races and then the Filly was made to toil for another 20 days.That surely deserves some condemnation. If this was to ensure fitness and performance , then surely he is not Competent to be a trainer as it indicates lack of confidence in its capabilities even after it WON several classics. Why enter it in the prestigious race ??
I have seen this tactic failing with DYNASTY and KIARA
( both having same owner , C.Glenn and M.Dubash ).
They were made to participate in races held in Pune ,Mumbai ,bangalore and Mysore at regular intervals giving no scope to recover from the tiring journey and regular racing.In fact Dynasty visited Hyderabad and Kolkata also.
All of us wanted the Queen FILLY , SET ALIGHT to WIN in style and end up as the Only Horse to move ahead for the future engagements with an unbeaten record , but that was not to be.
Shroff is the person against whom the ire has to directed at , not the Jockey.If Jockey failed in his responsibility , even then the blame is on the Trainer, reason being , the background , the character and the Previous HISTORY of the Jockey was a well known fact prior to the races.
Vijay Mallya's Aquitaine failed as a Favorite in a class III race but when the odds were considered GOOD enough it ,WON effortlessly in both class II and CLASS I , there by reversing form in a matter of a few days.
SpearHead ,Astral Flash , Chevron , Congratulations and many others flourished at lucrative odds while many others lost when asked to DELIVER to low odds.
Many other instances can be quoted but are preserved for another day.
Any coincidence in these matters is only for logical reasoning.
So you reap what you SOW.
so here COMES Antonios ,
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