10 races , 138 horses in the fray. Difficult to even shortlist the 3-4 good horses , leave alone suggest a good bet or analyse Entire Race Card .
Not sure if analysis would be useful at all , when fields are large , luck of the race matters a lot , particularly over sprint distances. Those with unfavorable draw may not be sighted at the busy end.
I will try to post with detailed comments , wherever possible , but it would take a few hours for thoughts to be translated into words and posted in blog..
Though i would ideally prefer first 2 named horses for WIN , would not mind if the 3 rd named also Wins at longer odds . This being the derby week end we should look at larger perspective and not get bogged down to the order in which horses are listed
1. ( Stormy Day , Giant Luck , Glorious Opinion )
Anybody's race .
Race for non performers as most of the horses are non Winners but for Earth Tamer and Guns N roses.
Tempest and Pamushana have both finished behind Alecto which to me is a pretty ordinary horse. Hence i would ignore Pamushana for Win , particularly since ODDS are meagre for comfort.
Tempest could have considered if a better jockey was partnering the horse as Owner has several options with regard to jockey declaration.
The most experienced / unlucky horse in the field is Glorious Opinion ex Amitayus which was earlier owned by the chairman and trained by I A Sait. The horse has raced with many horses whose rating have gone up substantially. Post stable change , there was 1 good run at pune where it finished 3 rd to Knight of Ke. The recent effort in race 130 was fair , as the likes of Song Sha and Malkhia were seen in action. How well it would do under this jockey is always a ??? But has capability to Win despite facing younger horses.
Stormy Day - has the weights in favour , as always jockey capability is a ?? as record of MOST allowance jockeys is pretty poor.Last run the jockey was unable to finish on well despite being well positioned.
Giant Luck finished 4 th to Went Worth , which surely is a better horse than the likes of Alecto. Next run was over 2k distance which was asking too much from a 4 year old non winner. Should do well as tracks are good , Owners have not won for long time .
Osric , has weights in favour at best a place chance.
2. Analeah , Sheer Romance , Zoom Zoom.
Two successive losses have dented the Hype on Analeah. The loss can be attributed to over confidence on the part of the rider as he displayed poor judgement. Trainer has now opted to race over shorter distance , reflects lack of confidence in the horse. At low odds as always avoidable , going by the horses it is facing and the relative handicap should Win.
Zoom Zoom and Sheer Romance have Won this season , however poor the field was. On that count they can't be ignored .
AAF has not raced since October 2013 & Brynhill not seen on race tracks since Sept 2012. Hence both are ignored. They may do well if FIT.
3. Patriotic / Samba Warrior , Star Gazing.
Patriotic was a impressive winner in race 102. Considering lack of form of most contenders in this race , a good chance to repeat.
Cactus Cash has seen far superior company in recent past , horse is not sighted in tracks , carries top weight , hence ignored.
Samba Warrior did reasonably well on debut finishing 2 nd. A fair chance to Win as recent tracks are good.
Star Gazing is a Winner over this distance though in lower class, but a good 4 th to Malkia in last start. Has a good chance to Place.
4. Rocking , Song of Africa , Windsor Queen .
This is a nightmare of a race as 17 runners are competing over sprint distance. Would be content if a couple of these horses finish in top 4.
Three Roses , Bethlehem and El Wonder are best avoided for Win. One of them could at place.
5. Albuurz , Blind Date , Crowned Princess.
Same comments as race 4.Not the ideal race for wagering.
6. Splendid Light , Dhishkyaon , Zoltan.
Penny Lane raced in Oaks , earlier effort was 4 th to Amazing Grace when at bottom handicap in class 4. Now that it is seen in class 5 , there is no certainty on its chances. I would prefer to ignore its claims for Win if it runs as favorite as Risks are High. Owner may ignore pennies on Saturday as his horse is seen in action in feature event.
Zoltan & Splendid Light finished 2 nd in previous starts. The latter has seen better company in Pune , recent tracks are good. Should place , may Win.
Zoltan is facing younger horses , trainer's horses are highly inconsistent. Hence i feel that it may place at best.
Dhishkyaon - was seen covering ground over 1200 in race 141. Getting weight from all runners , siblings did well . This horse is yet to prove its mettle. The upset if any in this race.
Gold Necklace is bred to do well , since its performance has been backward and trainer usually makes an attempt to Win at Pune , ignored.
The Other Song and Adams Prince needs better jockeys to Win.
7. Shivalik Breeze OR Shivalik Skies , National Gold.
SB did well on debut , has credentials to win. Rider is not the best , at times he shows how mediocre he can be. Owner has multiple entries , potential of new comers is unknown , Value bets are to be preferred.
SS - is tracking the best , has the top rider . Lack of run benefit may not affect its chances as it comes from performing stables unlike SB , trainer Bezan Chenoy is known to be quite lazy , where as CDK keeps his horses FIT by regular work outs.
National Gold , Great Expectation , Without Fear - are all contenders for minor places. If GE wins it will be a great feat for its Sire - Always a Rainbow.
8. Dancing Prances , Monza , Myla Rose.
Amelia post the fall in fillies stakes is not very active in tracks. A horse which Won 2 classics at Hyd and Blr over mile trip to be seen in sprint race is a downfall by any standards. Though a class I race, the very fact that trainer felt that is no longer fit to participate in CLASSICS conveys negative intent. After its sensational Victory on debut it was expected to repeat in next outing. Dancing Prances the speedy off spring of Dancing Greens displayed amazing speed and beat Amelia comprehensively. As they face each other again , the preference is for the Victor since it has Winning form and running over right distance. Not that Amelia can't do well since it is at feather weights , there is lack of confidence.
Having said that DG is yet to Win in class 1 as the horse had availed of short leave after a run at Pune. A Win would be expected considering its sheer class , yet it wont be a formality as there are genuine class I horses in the fray. Jockey Srinath is the other worrisome factor as his record ZERO this season.
Anahi has poor saddle support and may struggle over this distance. Siler Streak drops down in distance , may struggle for place.
Monza is a class I horse , expected to do well over shorter trips. Has the tendency to veer out / drfit during the race. It seems the problem has since been rectified , ran a close 4 th to Manyatta over 1400. A good chance to do well at longer odds.
Myla Rose - last outing was a disaster , main cause the jockey who rode indifferently , The recent track word is good , one more hopeful at longer odds.
9. Top Commander , Schiavone , Don Corleone.
Schiavone was unfavorably placed on debut , came with telling strides to Win impressively. The competition was clearly inferior, the manner of winning impressed. As its illustrious siblings showed class early , there is a fair chance to replicate the success.
Don Corleone & Majestic Opinion are good enough to place having Won a race each.
Top Commander - on tracks , preparation , handicap , choice of jockey , bloodlines , emerges as a front line contender. Usually non Winners struggle when facing Multiple Winners , yet in this case , the horse has sound credentials to do well. As owner has 3 entries and all 3 are fancied , one can only hope for the best.
10. Mauna Kea , Intesar , Feodor.
Ultasonic is sparingly raced , has fitness issues , junk rider. May not even place.
Intesar Won impressively in race 133 , beating a couple of highly fancied horses.Preparation is on the POOL. Should place , can Win.
Mauna Kea , last run was in the fillies classic. As usual no tracks , intent is seen by choice of rider on the BIG day . Though it is Winner in class 4 unlike Intesar which Won in class 3 , this horse is capable of Winning.
Feodor - despite long absence Won impressively in race 127. Bred for speed unlike the first 2 named horses.However presence of MK has to be factored due to ownership factor.
Good Luck
2 nd Jackpot Options
Splendid Light , Penny Lane , Dhishkyaon
Shivalik Skies , Shivalik Breeze.
Dancing Prances , Monza , Amelia
Top Commander , Schiavone
Maua Kea
