28 th April , Delhi Races

My Choices for the day are as follows -

1. Kirpan , Rock With Me , Celebration Star.

2. Like My Child , Miss Monroe , Sun Flag.

3. Mini Cooper , Romantic Mission , Master Tiger.

4. Black N Pink , Miss Ferrari ,  Want to Love.

5. Save Your Money , Ashwa Gaznee , Just Gold.

6.Ashwa Sonika , Super Select , Ruling Class.

7. Miss Fox , Ashwa Sunena , Miss Venus

Good luck

27 th April Mumbai Races

Hi all ,

The Concluding day of the current racing season , most of the races look Wide Open.  No detailed comments for obvious reasons.  The First 2 Named Horses can be considered for Win / Each Way based on race time ODDS . As i don't expect last named horses to Win , they can be considered for  Place Only.  

As always look for value bets , Ignore On Money Favorites / Horses from Dubious 3 rd rate trainers.

1.  Cut Diamond , Jaipur Gem , Highway Express.

2.  Monza , Demonstrator.

3.  Rocking , Winds of Change , Stormy Day.

4.  God Speed , Rule Down Under , Meggido.

5.  Nature Boy , Earth Orbit , Speed Baby.

6.   Pepito , Beyond Intensity , Senorita Evita.

7.  Mauna Kea , Wild Waves , Fortune Hunter.

8.  Eleheh , First Lady , An Jolie.

9.  Captain Smart , Diamond Zip , Exactly.

Post edited at 9 30 am . 







Good luck,

26 th april , Mumbai races

Hi all ,

season ending choices are -

1. Chasing Dreams , Sword of Honor.

VB race over 2000 metres.  Obvious horses Sam and Golden Wave have Zero Chance to Win unless the rest 4 are withdrawn. Rest have competed with each other in recent past. More than merit Jockey's  pace judgement matters in these races. I prefer to Ignore Aged Horse Blue Swallow
( a Winner in recent past ) as well as Zafirah which may be eyeing a Win @ Pune . As fancied horses there is no Value in wagering on them.

Chasing Dream has fair credentials since it is not raced very frequently and jockey capability can Enable a Win. Trainers record on favorites may be very BAD , does oblige when ODDS are in Favor.

Recently licensed Apprentice jockeys talent or lack of it would be visible during next season.  One can't really be very confident when considering horses ridden by them. At longer ODDS , the damage is less , Returns Huge.

2. Lucky Charm , Pepper Corn.

Dicey race as 5 / 7 entries are from a Dubious trainer. Horses 2.4.7. have no chance going by past performance.

Midnight Dancer , regular4 trainer under suspension , horse finished way behind Winner in past outing. Hence can be ignored.

Out of the rest 3 , nothing much to differenciate , i would ignore horses running at Low ODDS.

3. Red Fort , Innocent Affair.

Horses 2 and 5 lose out due to poor pedigree and doubts on its capability over MILE trip.

Scent of A Woman , looks good on tracks . Not sure if it can translate into the race as there are better BRED horses in fray. In any case , No point betting at low Odds .

Jager Bomb is bred as Janis Jay , last run was reasonable. Has a fair chance to finish 2nd. A Win would be difficult.

Innocent Affair is tracking well , bred to last the trip. Can be the season end Surprise ??

Red Fort - debut run over MILE , not many trainers opt for such races . Those with experience tend to do well as seen this season. However as Sire's record over longer distances is very good and  tracks forward , worth taking a Each way Chance.

4. ( Dancing Splendor , Star Builder ) Double or Quits.

Limited options as most horses in the fray haven't shown any progress over 1400 trip .

Bonobo , previous run was good , may at best Place here.

Double or Quits , Winner over longer distance , relative handicap does makes it difficult to consider for Win.

5. Star Benovelent , Mesmeric , By the Way,

Class VB race , difficult to bet confidently on fancied horses for obvious reasons.

6. Cactus Cash , Presence , Glorious Opinion.

Hawker is ignored as jockey ability is not known and as fancied runner there is no Value in a Bet.

Presence lost as fancied runner in previous outing , has weights in favour. Should Place. Can Win if allowance jockeys are not upto the mark..

Cactus Cash - finished 4/4 in last start , but it was a close finish and considering the relative handicap , horse has a good chance to Place / Win.

Glorious Opinion , did well in last start when un fancied. Could at best place ,  considering jockey declared a risky proposition .

7. Adam , Advance to Contact , Doc Holiday.

Not sure why Adam has been rested for a long time. If  FIT should Win as its debut run was eye catching. Pedigree wise stands tall compared to rest of runners.

Quest for Love , consistent facing very superior opposition compared to earlier starts. Looks difficult for Win.  Place dividends may not be very attractive.

Desert Wings and Divine Solitaire are good horses , top handicap / weaker jockeys are reasons to Ignore.

Advance to Contact , looks fit. Rider is not the best , hence Place may be a safer option.

8. Dixie Delight , Copper Glow , Osric.

La Femma Fluer - impressive Winner on debut , came with a flourish in the last 100 metres and romped home in style. Seen in same class over extended distance but with penalty. Usual tactic is to look for allowance jockey to offset the penalty. If not feasible then a Good jockey is entrusted with task of guiding its fortunes. If the likes of Neeraj Rawal are seen riding ON Money Favorites , best decision is to Keep Away. If horse Wins on Merit , so be it. Why take risk of betting on Low ODDS when intent is SUSPECT.

Last run of Copper Glow was very good , should place despite trainer's decision not to opt for positive equipment.

9. Oriental Masti , Awesome Smile , Quando Quando.

Stormy Princess is the best on Merit. Trainer under suspension , owner may not be very active during end of season , dubious Lowly Rated Trainer  has taken charge.

O.Masti , last run was very impressive , a fair chance. Jockey has done reasonably well .

If 2. 5 National Gold does well then 9.4  National Pride can be expected to Shine.

10. ( Capilano , Cosmic Dancer ) Tachyon.

Winner may be restricted to the JODI . This being race over sprint distance , a few horses may not be able to match strides

Good day

Friday, April 25 , 2014 DELHI RACES

1. BHITSKI , SANG BLUE.



2.ASHWA SONIKA , MISS CINDRELLA.



3.SADAJIT , ALL WEATHER GOLD.



4.SEVEN EIGHT SIX , RACING KING.



5. MASTER AGASSI , ENTER AND CANTER.



6. MISS FOX , TRUSTED MAN .



7. FAST AND FURIOUS , SHIMAH.





GOOD DAY

21.04.2014 DRC races

Short selections listed below . As always , can be ignored if ODDS are not in favour.



1. Rio's Girl.



2. Kirpan.



3. Neivasha.



4. Master Star. The Mafia.



5. Seezuka . Hot Blood.



6. Follow Me . Perfect Affect.

GOOD DAY,

Sunday April 20 th Mumbai races

Hi all ,

Competitive card seen after a long time. Most races have an open look.

Champion jockey Sandesh is doing duty on many fancied horses . Not easy to pick which of these horses will Win . Earlier part of racing season overwhelming opinion was to follow favorites even if they Lost subsequently .At fag end of season , opinion is to Avoid Favorites even if they are likely to Win. Such is the uncertainty in the Mind. For a change , some freshers will also be under the scanner on Sunday. 

Have edited the post this morning.

1. Essence of Love , Prince Arius , Exactly.

Bad race to start off the proceedings. 

Essence of Love is younger compared to many others in the fray. Has quality saddle support and relatively well bred. Finished nowhere but for its previous run over a mile trip. Should do well. 



Prince Arius is a BV case , rider is mediocre , however as rest of field are also having issues , a good chance to place due to Low weights.


Shockalot , ran well in previous outing. Enquiry opened for improved performance. Is a slow starter.

2. Lady Bird , WhiteSox.

Horses which have Won  are conceding weight. Hence difficult to consider them for WIN.

Lady Bird is tracking well , has seen superior company. Only issue is the LONG break since previous run and LOW Odds. Not Worth taking chance even if it cakewalk. 

WhiteSox & High Expectation - IF Lady Bird falters due to whatever reasons , the  Contenders for 1 st spot will  be from above duo.

3. Heat Wave , Trance.

Victoria Falls has WON 2 races since making debut. Owners are not very reliable when their horses are fancied. Trainer did his part by declaring dud's like Neeraj Rawal earlier. Last run was brilliant but how does it explain the earlier losses to lower class horses like Trisara , Incention &  Caruso ??

Heat Wave - has Won thrice this season , last 2 runs has finished 2 nd to Horses which have done well in subsequent start in higher class. The small disadvantage in handicap can be offset by superior saddle skills.

Trance , could place if one of the fancied runner falters. As always worth a punt when a horse comes from Sait stables at longer odds.  

4. Shining Path ,Rubens , Protector of Paris.

Vasco Do Gama is class 4 Winner facing some experienced horses. Not sure if it will even PLACE.

Most of the competing horses were seen in race Won by Sailor. Change in saddle , handicap , equipment may reverse the standings.

POP is well suited over the trip , but i prefer to ignore horses trained by Shroff for Win if they are seen in Trophy races.

Rubens , can upset if rider shows some mettle.

Shining Path appeals on Merit , handicap and distance suitability. 
  

5. Cezanne , Blend of Elegance , Malzie , Sunny Sea.

Race for 3 year old's. All Cezanne would need is a Level Jump from the gates. At low Odds , no point even considering a Win bet. 

On pedigree , Malzie and Sunny Sea look better then rest of field.


Blend of Elegance ran well on debut. Should Place.


Sweet as Honey , dud sire. Can be ignored as payouts will be minimal and there is no certainty.


Arrivederci - may need a slightly longer distance to show its potential. As there are too many inter linked horses in the fray , one has to OMIT certain horses instinctively.

6. Zaan , Feast of Love , Samba Warrior.

Winged King may not even place , going by its performance in last outing where it lost to Aged Horse .The handicap and Rider does not help its cause.  

Zaan was seen finishing on well in last start. Over extended distance , should EASILY Place.
Can Win , rider is yet to prove credentials on Mumbai tracks.

Feast Of Love made a belated bid in last start , rider was content keeping horse in last position till the bend . Place looks certain .

Samba Warrior , Fleet Wood Mac and Scalanaya are contenders for Place.  Jockey capabilities are unknown in respect of for new comers.

7. Something Special , Spades , Act of Valour

Limited options , preference can be given to horses which have raced earlier.

Amongst new comers Spades is tracking the best. Jockey rides well for these owner's. 

Aquamarine , Lhotse are also good in tracks.  

8. Snow Angel , Song of Africa ,  Small Treasure.

Too many horses in the fray over Sprint Distance.  Difficult to pick the best as there are 3 new faces , couple of mediocre riders , couple of dubious trainers trying to reduce the handicap.

 

Special Race Day - Winning Owners are expected to Donate part of Stake Money earned. As  stake money itself is very Low & Owners have to Pay for maintainence for next  months without any Earnings , they resort to other means to recover the  outflows , gambling owners / trainers are usually seen striking on these days.

Good day,

Saturday 19 th April Mumbai Races.

Uncertainty looms large during closing stages of racing season. Lots of nohopers in the fray , looking to earn their corn bill.  If intent is visible on these horses , merit usually takes back seat.

My choices for the day are as follows -

1. Sindbaad  / Run Like The Wind. 

Class Vb race , only 5 in the fray of which Viva Zapata has Zero chance to even Place.

Ibis is due for retirement , has the scales in favour. Facing a bunch of non performers , has best possible saddle support. Since this would be a fancied runner , i would prefer to skip If it Wins so be it. 

Adams Prince , was expected to Win in last outing. Failed despite a decent ride. Place won't pay much in 4 horse race. I don't expect it to Win.

Sindbaad has seen better days as it has raced with some good 3 / 4 year old's earlier. On the basis of  its bloodlines it should be running in class 3.  As it is seen in class VB , Obviously it is repair case , under this notorious trainer , ownership also reveals horse is not genuine. However as field is backward can do well.

Run Like The Wind - could be season ending surprise , handicap looks very attractive ?? Jockey is backward but at longer odds , no harm in taking a chance. 

 2. Belvedere , Invictus, One Wish.

On handicap & the manner in which it Won last start , Belvedere has a fair chance though it is seen here on DOUBLE promotion facing vastly superior horses.

Bombardier has not Won a race this season. Is conceding weight to many 4 year old's. As a fancied runner does not impress.

Highlander and Mufasa have raced together , seen in class 2 for the first time. Since the latter raced last Week  and has also lost to the former earlier  risky to consider again.

Invictus - a front runner as also blood vessel case.  Recent tracks are good. Can reverse the placings due to better saddle support despite the handicap.

Our Wish - has been very consistent this season. This Rider has partnered quite a few Winners for Antia.  If race time pointers are positive , Belvedere can be ignored , take a chance on One Wish as it is running in same class.

3. Dior , Target Master , Oasis Light.

Bad race as but for Aged Star Prince , rest have not Won in recent past. Hence younger horses are preferred over the rest. Hopefully Winner should arise from above 3 horses and 2 could Place.

Ignored Saturday Affair due to handicap / jockey capability.

4. Ceasars Star , Negotiator.

Spirit or Mercy has no chance . Mountbatten is racing first time over this distance and that too on promotion.

Falcon may have raced with superior 4 year old horses , it is yet to Win a handicap race since making debut. Has failed to deliver many a time. As a fancied runner , i prefer to ignore .

Negotiator has low weights and has Won a few races this season unlike others in the fray. Rider capability is a ??? in all class 1 long distance races .

Rodeo - no show this season , conceding weight to younger horses. 

In long distance races , tactics usually decide outcome.  One can only pray for best outcome after the wager.

5. Dream Liner , Gloria , Wild Waves.

Tricky race , opting for least fancied runners due to ODDS.  On Negative handicapping fancied runners don't impress due to ODDS and Reliability factors.

Wild Waves seems best on past performance. Should logically Win. But as fancied runner the risks are large when mediocre riders are assigned task of guiding fortunes. When these jockeys Win a race , it looks very impressive , but their sloppy rides have often led to Horses losing . At longer odds , there is scope to hedge the investment , as fancied runner , best to ignore.  If it Wins so be it.

Song of Sparrow , Mountain Prince , Incentio and Vixen may find it difficult to Win due to distance suitability , age & handicap.

Ice Age , has been seen finishing on well in a couple of races. Could at best Place.

Pepe Senior after innumerable runs with DUD jockeys has Won twice. Could at best place as relative handicap is not in favor.

Sheer Romance , Twice in past 4 starts it finished more than 13 lenghts behind Winner over same distance . Rest 2 starts it was barely 2 lenghts behind Winner. Horse has not improved a lot , just that differed junk riders were seen astride . One can never guess where it will finish when horses are trained by the likes of N.Lagad .

Dream Liner is usually seen hitting the front and if rest of field take it easy can UPSET. Win Odds are expected to be 40 ,  Place odds would be atleast 6 to 1.  Instead of Playing BIG on fancied horse and losing , what's wrong in investing a Tiny amount on this horse for Place. In any case there is no certainty on which bet will be successful.

Gloria , aged horse due for retirement , PLACE Looks good.

6. Providence , Adams Spirit, Grand Duke.

Providence last few runs have been over longer distances. Has raced with relatively better horses. Field consists of many non performers , Aged Horses , Junk Jockeys , Multiple entries from Antia. Under these circumstances , top handicap may not have an Impact. If it runs below 1.50 , one can ignore.

Grand Duke , a fair 4 th despite tardy start in Magician Race. A level jump would help its cause.

Stilleto / Siddhi  , former  had finished 2 nd to Rosie Sun Shine in Pune. Post set back sparingly raced. May place. Latter was a non jobber in last start , Could place at longer ODDS here due to handicap.

7. ( Archimedes / Phelps ) Brown Dynamite.

Angel in the Sky , was one of the shortest priced favorites to lose this season. Choice of rider and extended distance are pointer to its chances.

Vanguard , last run was backward , on expected lines as horse was racing after LONG break. As usual No tracks , top handicap / ace rider , does not help its cause.

Both Archimedes and Phelps are NON Winners. Based on their previous runs , there is scope for them to Deliver as rest don't impress despite having Won this season.

Tempest was seen finishing on strongly over 1200 , lost by narrow margin. Over extended distance and lower handicap , may be fancied. As it is facing superior opposition , i would not give it much of a chance to Win , could  Place.

Trevor Patel is seen on many fancied horses. Obvious he is not capable of Winning on all of them.  If he Wins a couple early on , safer to avoid his subsequent mounts.

Good day,

Friday Delhi Selections

Odds based choices for the day are as follows -

1. Flash Forward , Royal Queen.

2. Rock With Me , Sun Flag.

3. Seven Eight Six , Golden.

4. Wild Coco , Mister Sexy.

5. Lucky , Mini Cooper.

6.Super Select , Dimple

Good Day

Special Races Sunday 13 th April

Hi all ,

A very dull race card as we see limited participants in 4 / 8 races .  Punters would be in dilemma between Devil and Deep Sea .  To go with Good horses partnered by not so good Jockeys running at Low Odds or opt for Horses with better saddle support / decent Odds.

Multiple entries from couple of dubious trainers does not help matters , race time pointers and choice of jockeys could be misleading for obvious reasons. These are Special Day races , caution is key word , better be Safe than Sorry.

1. Celsius , Emperor of France .

Two genuine class II horses aged 4 competing with Two aged horses which were competing until very recently in class IV .  Both the fancied horses comes from same stable , not sure of what instructions would be given.. Compared to last outing , handicap is stiff for both fancied runners . Brindaban is ridden by champion rider , who manages to Win a couple of races on most race days.  His strike rate being the Best . Presence of Attraction in 2nd race , could be a pointer of preference of Trainer.

EOF is ridden by a mediocre jockey who strike rate is the Worst.Jockey Neeraj Rawal has Won 9 races this season , all Solo Wins , yet to Pick 2 races in single day. 4 horses to be ridden by him  are likely to be in the ODDS.  At decent odds , worth a punt , at low odds , no harm in skipping. If it Wins so be it.

Fancied horses running at top handicap as well as low odds are best avoided , particularly during end season. So preference goes to Horse with better ODDS.

Celsius is very very speedy , negligence of jockeys atop fancied runners can enable it to perform beyond expectations.

2. Royal Passion  / Theory.

Limited options , Celtic Prince does not have best possible saddle support.

Attraction is very active in tracks , Trainer has many GOOD entries during the day. Presence of A.Sandesh indicates positive intent , if Brindaban does well in first race , could expect this horse to do well. This being first run and that too over Mile trip , i prefer to ignore.

Royal Passion ,  may not have beaten anything of note , but a Winner never the less . Conceding weight may not be an issue.

Theory , did well on debut , has a fair chance here purely on account of Christopher.

3. Hawker , Cactus Cash.

Mufasa looks over raced , not sure if it can sustain the trip , start to finish attempt may falter due to handicap.

Hawker has undoubtedly seen better days. If fit , has nothing to beat. Since it is yet to Win a race this season , one can only hope for the best. At low Odds , best avoided as tactics not merit decide these races.

Dreams of You - sparingly raced , ignored due to ODDS and choice of rider .

4. Magic Vision , To the Moon , Tyke.

Class VB race , avoidable as one is not sure what to expect. As usual i prefer to Ignore fancied runners in these races.

Beyond Horizons is a repair case ,  may at best place. Bella Fugura is facing many YOUNGER horses , looks difficult. Jockey may be tired after his efforts on couple of fancied horses. To the Moon , has been kept off the radar , can strike . Race time pointers may help.

5. Victorious March , War Horse .

Avoidable due to limited options.

Rio is more of a 5 furlong horse , can do well only if fancied runners play truant.

Handicap definitely favours War Horse , rider is not the best.  Not worth considering for Win when fancied despite strong credentials of the Horse. At low weights all that he has to go is take a good jump and wait for other 3 horses to tire out.

V.March , top handicap yet can be preferred due to jockey capability.

6. Zoraavar , Silver Streak , Snow Drift.

Ocean and Beyond - last run was indeed pathetic.

Rajasthan Royals , mile trip may stretch its capabilities to the maximum.

Snow Drift - not seen genuine class till date since it has been racing in " B " class racing centre. However since it is younger compared to many contenders , may do well. This being first run at famed RWITC tracks , to be ridden by hopeless rider. Conceding weight to few performers on the circuit.

Supreme Star , impressive Winner in last start. Seems well placed on relative handicap compared to Silver Streak. But then how many such Formula's work in racing ?? Multiple entries are seen in almost all races , can hope to place.

Manyatta , Won when least expected , consistency is not its Virtue , when it is expected to deliver , it is but fair to play to the gallery.

Blue Ace , no show at mumbai this season.

Choices above are not the best , would be content if any 2 horses finishes in TOP 3 as  dividend would be generous.

7. Stormy Princess , Scaramouche , Achieve.

Bad race , as there is scope for a Upset.

Dreams R Mine , if trainer is so intelligent , then he would have tried 1400 distance earlier on in the season. Known to start off late from gates , yet was given entries in sprint races , difficult to support over extended distance.

Home Advantage , as inconsistent as one can , since it comes from IA Sait stables. If it does well here , credit will go to the Jockey. Presence of Scaramouche needs to be factored.

Oriental Dawn , good horse , pathetic rider. At longer Odds , backing for Place could yield dividends as form of most horses is suspect here..

Ice Zone - not going to be easy though last run was forward.

8. Winged King , Nigella  , Queen.

On the basis of its last performance , Winged King has a very good chance to Oblige.  Horse did well despite the long absence from tracks.

Nigella , is a Winner in lower class and facing far superior opposition. The low weights may enable a place spot.

Zanthos , Brave Fighter , Hot Pepper , last run of all 3 horses was decent , One of them could place.


Good day ,

Mumbai 12 th April Races

Hi all ,

Analysis of the races and my choices are as follows - 

1. UMARKOT , SNOW ANGEL , HOLIDAY DANCER.

Umarkot could not match strides with speedy Capilano who was a runaway Winner in previous start. Has a good  chance , but not a certainty since it is Non Winner and there are many Winners participating in the race. At Low Odds , SKIP.

Beau Royale - was outclassed in previous outing , but a impressive winner prior to that. Problem is with dubious stable , never know when they are on Job. Last week most horses landed in rucks. I would ignore for Win , place may not Pay much for it to be considered.

Holiday Dancer -  though aged has raced with better horses  , well placed on handicap , Place looks good. Rider capability to be factored.

Snow Angel -  not make takers due to jockey declared. A known  front runner , has credentials to Place , can surprise.

2. WIKI WIKI , LA TRAVIATA , PERITOMORENO .

Peritomerano beat a couple of aged horses in # 164. Not sure why trainer has opted for this rider.Facing a modest set , may do well but not be worth wagering for WIN when horse is fancied and low class riders are Opted for.

Wiki Wiki - but for the impressive debut at Pune , nothing much to show. Trainer does not track most of his horses and hence there is always a ?? on fitness. Presence of A.S does not guarantee a Win always but as most declared riders are poor may OBLIGE.

LA Traviata - has raced with some better horses since debut , could be a set back case since it has shifted stables. Last run was reasonable since the handicap was stiff.  Could place at Longer ODDS.

TAHRIR - has also changed stables since its victory. No recent tracks / activity at Pool. Finds a mention in vet report. Rider declared is very poor. At best a place option. 

Mr Morrison , distance seems sharp. In and out running , difficult to consider positively though it finished 2 nd to Silsila which is racing in class 3 now.

3. ZAFIRAH , BLUE SWALLOW , CEASARS WIFE.

Class VB race over 2000 metres , not worthwhile to go by merit as tactics matter in these types of races.  I would be content if 2/3 horses do well.

Annabeth , junk rider , first time over 2k distance. Hence avoidable.

Plated , worst bred horse in the fray , choice of jockey reflects its chances.

Ghanghor is running often for comfort. Has seen better class compared to rest of field. May do well. 

4.MAUNA KEA , SILSILA ,WIND CRAFT.

Mauna Kea , looks far superior as it has raced with horses which are now class 1 .  As always no tracks , sprint distance does look a bit sharp , all it needs is a good jump.Can win on sheer class.

Silsila , is bred to do well over sprint distance , having Won a race this season can't be ignored for whatever reasons. Only activity is seen in POOL. If Fit can challenge fancied runner.

Habibians - Lost a certain race in last outing , rider was hopeless made his move far too late. The name change may not yield positive results as rider declared now is absolutely poor. Where it finishes is anybody's guess but at Low odds , there is no point even considering a Bet. 

5. ( KNIGHT OF KE / JANIS JAY )

Only 2 payouts in this race too.

Horses 1.3.4 have least chance to Oblige.

Fortune Hunter has been extremely consistent and runs over ideal trip. Since it is facing younger horses , ignored.

Bombardier - failed favorite , has seen better company compared to rest of the field. But having lost Twice in recent past to AGED horses , there is a ?? on ability .Horse has Not Won this season. With horses 4.6.7 being linked , it is better to ignore the fancied runner for obvious reasons.

Knight of Ke - is known to cut a fast pace right from the word GO. Last run was a disaster of Epic Propotions as declared rider could not do justice .  The trainer to take the blame for
entrusting good horses to DUD jockey's. A fair chance.

Janis Jay , lost at the shadow of the post to fancied runner Big Bull in # 260. Is now in class 2 facing superior horses but with drop in in weights .It can beat Owner's other horse easily due to jockey merit and handicap. Can it beat Knight of Ke is the ?? 

6.( FLASH DRIVE , FLYING KISS ) CUT DIAMOND

Earth Orbit , when younger horses are sold by Big Owner's & eventual buyer is trainer himself , obvious that Horse may have had health issues. This being class VB race , makes no sense to back a fancied horse , particularly when it did well when unfancied in last start.

Cut Diamond , is well bred by VB standards , has raced only twice , last run was quite good. Not very active in tracks.

Morals has changed stables for the 3 rd time , recent tracks are good. May need a mile to show progress , could at best Place.

Flash Drive , first run this season , merits consideration as horse may be fresh . Has Won a mock race recently.

Flying Kiss - has come down a lot in ratings , will trainer wait & encash in Pune  or strike here is the ?? . In any case at Longer odds  , no harm in taking a small chance e/w.

Stormy Day - a habitual slow starter.

7. ELAHEH , BEYOND INTESITY , SAVAGE BEAUTY , DRACO.

Could go any which way. Elaheh seems to be withdrawn .

Difficult to shortlist the best as this is the Most open race of the day . My picks are based on pedigree , recent tracks and Likely ODDS.

Loveable Locks could also do well. Mine Forever does not impress for Win.

Race time pointers may also not be very useful in this race. 

8.KING GLORIEUX , CHA CHA CHA , WESTPHALIA.

Race for 3 year old's most of them debutants. a few may do well over a slightly longer trip , say 1400 . Over this distance the following may do well. ( edited )

Zodiac is bred as Trance which has been one among the TOP dud's racing. Can be expected to do well over mile trip.

Storming Home - late debutant from Ace stables. Tracks are not very encouraging.
 
Good day ,

6 th April Mumbai races

Saturday races were for followers of favorites.  Sunday being Special Day races ,  it may PAY to avoid backing short priced favorites.

Narendra Lagad , Dallas Todywala and I.A.Sait are known to Win on these days.

My choices for the day are -

1. Always There . Mt Tianmen , Quando Quando.

Class Vb race ,  youngsters are yet to Win , aged horses seem to have lost form.

Star Benevolent has been failing repeatedly , facing very weak field  , can this jockey change its fortunes  ??

On known form , the first 2 named horses have a good chance to Oblige.

QQ is a Winner as compared to many non winners participating. On that count place looks Good.

2. Acclaimed , Mint Apporach.

If the likes of Mon Ami can beat Mint Approach then anything is possible in racing.

The universal preference in this race would be for the 4 year old's in the fray as it difficult to consider aged horses conceding weight to younger horses.

Acclaimed is returning to tracks after 6 months ,  reasons for not racing for SO LONG is not known.

3. Mr Belvedere , Pappillon , Ricochet .

Over this distance , horses 2.4.8 can be ignored.

Belvedere , has sound credentials , top weight may affect its chances for Win. At low odds , better to skip. Surprising to see this jockey doing duty for Shroff.

Pappillon & Dixie Delight have raced together and on relative handicap , the former appeals , though there is no certainty since it is poorly bred.

Fleetwood Mac - may at best place.

4. ( Wasabi , Oriental Rocky ) Wild Waves.

Limited options , can't see aged horses Winning this race.

Wild Waves has been very impressive in last 2 starts , facing very superior field. Hence a win looks very much in doubt.

Oriental Rocky is racing a bit too often , yet having seen better class , should be Moral for Place. Can Win. Last outing horse stumbled and lost all chances.

Wasabi , looking good on account of handicap. Recent tracks are good.

Vanguard , coming after long break , hence ignored

5.Heart of the City , Hudson Hawk , Koalaa.

Greek God was a runaway Winner in both starts , is now conceding weight to entire field . Jockey changed for whatever reasons. Record of trainer / jockey very poor , hence can be ignored due to ODDS factor.

Koalaa , has raced with better horses , but very unlucky  , reason for loss being earlier trainer's choice of jockeys with view on ODDS. Was on money favorite last week , withdrawn before the race. Can Win if FIT , since it was HURT last week there is a ?? on its fitness.

Heart of the City being a recent outing Winner can't be ignored as bloodlines are superior.

Hudson Hawk is also well bred , stable retainer is seen on fancied horse. Hudson Hawk  is known to be speedy and should Place.

6. Angeling , Revlon , Mystic Romance.

Race for youngsters , difficult to pick the best as Options are in Plenty.

Preferences above are based on past run , jockey declarations , recent tracks , pedigree.
 

7.Archimedes , Tempest , SunTan Beauty.

When there are more than a Dozen Runners in a Sprint race ,  luck of the race matters a lot . Very rarely does the best horse Win .

Horses aged  5 and above , horses sparingly raced , horses with poor saddle support , have been ignored .

Tempest has the scales in favour. Place looks certain.

Archimedes is not very active , best bred in the field. Comes from top stables , horses which fail are usually disposed off quickly. Since this horse has been retained , one can hope for the best.

8. Nature Boy , Seven Seas , Matues Rose.

On the basis of its previous run , Nature Boy has the best credentials to Win the race.

Presence of many work jockeys on some decent horses don't convey Positive intent. Hence ignored.

Good day

Mumbai 5 th April Races

Hi all ,

Last month of current season , with completion of all major races  , stage is set for small time owners to earn stake money . Horses from lesser known stables may suddenly display marked improvement on their known form .

My choices for the day after due analysis of various factors are as follows -

1. ( Guns N Roses / Run Like the Wind )

Horses 2.4.5 were seen in # 281 which was Won by Double or Quits.  There is a marked change in relative handicap as well as jockey capabilities. Hence the order of placings CAN change.

Walk of Life could not keep pace with younger and fit horses who cut a fast pace. Hence finished way down the field. Can hope to place.

Adams Prince , has been consistent , last time Place Odds was 3 to 1 , here it may be 3 to 1 for Win. I try to keep away when the ODDS are not appealing.

Run Like the Wind may be Eyeing a Win @  pune as Dallas and Lagad are 2 sides of the same coin. Having placed only ONCE in several starts , confidence to bet may be lacking , however considering the relative opposition and the large number of entries from trainer during the day  may be worth taking a chance.

Guns N Roses  - a demotee , age , distance , saddle support may all look negative. Yet for having seen better days and for facing modest opposition , can;t rule out its chances. Due for retirement .

Ice Rink - but for its last run , there is no worthwhile form to consider a bet. Mambo Magic may have Won again in higher class , does not mean that Ice Rink will Win in a canter in lower class. For a horse which has remained unplaced since debut , to start as fancied runner itself is a big achievement.

2. ( Sanam , Indus Prince )  Delightful Lady.

# 254 was a great race to watch , for the way in which The General swamped the opposition with a devastating run in the last furlong. The horses which raced in that race are capable of showing out over shorter distance.

Between the 2 , Sanam may have support due to rider capability , pedigree and for having finished ahead in the said race.

Indus Prince is bred for speed , there is a likelihood of a close finish. Place looks Good.

Asharfie was a good 4 th to Great Expectation over 1000 metres. Is tracking very well and may start as favorite. Not worth considering a Win bet.

Delightful Lady is also well bred ,  is bred to do well over this distance. With 2 payouts only , DL can be considered ONLY IF any of the fancied horses are WITHDRAWN.

3. ( Sherlock Holmes , Monza ) So True

Horses 3.5.7 can be ignored for Win. At best Jimbo can Place .

Zoom Zoom , last run was bad , but with weights raised at acceptance stage by 4 kgs , horse could not  match strides with bottom handicap horses . Not sure if it can beat the horses who have the weights in favour again.

Monza - is 1 Class superior to rest of the field. Having raced with classic Winners , it is now pitted against some very ordinary horses which have moved up in ratings . Past few runs have been very bad as Jockey has been trying his best to keep it to the rails , since Horse has bad habit of moving across the tracks. Has the weights to tackle. Place looks CERTAIN , rest depends on pace of race .

Sherlock Holmes - has Lost / Beaten Brynhill in last 2 starts. Both these horses are running first time in Class 2.  Its not easy beating horses which are highly experienced in handicap races.

4. Oriental Masti , Summer Express ,  Laurus Pride.

Difficult race to judge , preference is horses which may be quoted at longer odds. Hopefully 2 /3 horses may PLACE.

Passion Prince is a non Winner despite several starts. As there are too many contenders , ignored for Win.

Earth Tamer has been quite consistent , rider is mediocre.  When long priced , there is no harm in attempting each way , as a fancied runner , there is no value in Betting for Win on these riders.

Rewarding Desire , another mediocre jockey , pathetic performance  in bangalore , horse has credentials to do well. I prefer to Ignore for Win  , play payouts may be Minimal.

Summer Express , expensive failure since debut , is facing a modest set of runners , hence there is a good chance to clear Maiden Status.

Laurus Pride , a known front runner , last 2 runs have been very good , can't be ignored for minor places.

Oriental Masti - after a close 6 th to Achieve over 1400 ,  was tested over a mile in next run , the front runner Rubens was too good . Drop down in distance now and hence should PLACE. Worth considering E/W due to ODDS factor.

5. Gottawearshades , Jaipur Gem , Highway Express.

Dash for Cash Race. Could go any which way.  As first 2 named horses have allowance jockeys , the handicap looks better when compared to Previous Start.

Highway Express was not very far off from eventual Winner  Double Diamond , has come down a lot in rating. Can Upset.

Good Memory and Fajr may have placed in last start , looks difficult here.

6. Strawberry Crush , Dazzle N Daze , Athens.

1800 trip for 3 year old's , difficult to go by past performance / pedigree . Recent Track work & jockey capability do matter a lot.

Strawberry Crush has jockey for the occasion. Hence place looks Moral. Can Win.

Athens has seen better class , owner's have not been able to Win for Ages. As a fancied runner better to Skip . Nanuk may perform well due to relative jockey capability.

7.( Siddhi , La Tonnarella ) Bonobo.

Close call between 2 fancied runners. Siddhi finished 2 nd in last start , failed favorite , was seen finishing on strongly  , can be considered due to ODDS factor.

La Tonnarella - quantum jump in saddle support. Raced well on debut , not much separated horses which placed 2 nd to 7 th . Over extended distance should be the Horse to beat. May not offer value for Money at Low ODDS.  

8. Rubens / Malkia , Ucheshrewa.

a few interlinked horses in the fray. 

Sailor was very very impressive in last start BUT beat nothing of note in class 4. Is now facing genuine class 3 horses. The weights as well as presence of speedier horses may affect its chances. As a fancied runner , i prefer to ignore its claims as risk outweigh returns.

Rubens - another winner in lower class but a known front runner , can make it Start to Finish if the rest are unable to keep pace. May be good enough to PLACE here , that qualifies for a Each Way bet.

Malkia , last run was absolutely gross , what else can be expected when eventual Winner & On Money favorite Big Bull was coming from Shroff stables. May be PAY back time ??

Protector of Paris - 3 rd to Domingo , allowance jockey Shammi Khan may have helped its cause. Why this rider of all the jockeys  ??

Isadoror , has merit to Even Win, safe bet would be for Place. Stable is not performing , there are inter linked horses in fray ,

Good day