01 - 01 - 2015

Wishing you all good health, happiness, and success in the coming year and always. Happy New Year 2015.

I would have loved to post in detail , but a look at Race Card & Probable payouts prevented  me from wasting time on the analysis. No justice done to visitors as i can't suggest On Money Favorites nor can recommend Long Shots just for the heck of it. If there is a fair chance for a Horse to do well , it is worth a fling at 40 to 1 also. But when 7 out of 9 races are expected to be Won by the First 3 Favorites on the Tote , what Bet can a Punter opt for. Win @ Low Odds or Place at Low Odds. Risk is the same.Waste of time. Honestly did not wish to Even Post , but then visitors keep reminding me often of the races.

Top Jockeys have preferred to visit a low class centre , that in itself gives a clear picture of the competitive element of Mumbai races. Obvious there will be a few gambles by low class stables. Identifying them is not easy. 

For those who Bet on Favorites ,  my Blog does not help their decision making process , since they would in any case go by Book maker's choice of the best horse in the fray.  

First Day of the Year , why take big risks when the results are expected to be on anticipated lines.

Have edited the post @ 11 am.

1. Low Class race best avoided , not many would really bet looking at credentials of  Trainers / Jockeys.

Horses 2.4.7.9 are all capable of doing well , no particular choices from my side.  Best is to SKIP or go with Long Priced horses.

2. There is no need to mention Fancied horse. Makes no sense as only intelligent Fools would wager on the horse. Runs within a week carrying the penalty , top handicap , presence of speedier horses are presence of Zervan are factors to be considered. Are the Owners running it to earn the Paltry Rs 1.71 lacs stake money ?? Since there would be no Betting from their side.

Horses 3.7.8 have Least chance to Place.  

Those who wish to go for Place or Each Way , can consider Celsius , In the Lime Light or Deep Diver. If Payouts are LOW , SKIP.

3. Gold Bag , Soul Speak , Hoshiyaar.

Technically a Class VB race as it is meant for FOUR Year old MAIDENS ( NON WINNERS ) Where is the merit for Horses who could not Win over past 3 seasons . It's like looking for a Needle in the Haystack. 

Does any Horse merit a Bet - be it for Win or Place under the circumstances. 

4. Ireland ,  Ali Boxer ,  Spirited Touch.

These are common selections by One & All ,  difficult to opt for any other horse in the fray. Which of these 3 would merit a Win or Place Bet at ODDS offered & how well would they perform is a ???

5.Millenium Falcon , Summer Express , Adams Spirit.

Obviously the youngest horse in the fray & recent outing Winner has to be in the reckoning. How well would it do depends on Bookie Odds , in previous outing , it Won at Longer Odds. Trainer is insensitive to Low Odds.

Those who can create a flutter in case fancied runner fails are SE and AS.

6. Helping Hand , La Femme Fleur , Legend of the Seas.

H.Hand  would run at Low Odds , does it warrant a Bet is the ?? Trainer is doing extremely well this season.

Vixen , Legend of the Seas & La Femme Fluer are all in with a chance to Place. Again Low Place payouts are expected .

7. Minister , Alectar , Brown Dynamite.

Most horses in the fray have Poor record , no consistency , running over wrong distances , work jockeys , top handicap , non performing stables. My Random Picks are based purely on Jockey Capability in respect of First 2 horses.

8. Alderly Edge , Earl Grey , Goldilocks.

Technically a Class VB race as it is meant for FOUR Year old MAIDENS ( NON WINNERS ) Where is the merit for Horses who could not Win or Raced over past 3 seasons . It's like looking for a Needle in the Haystack.

Does any Horse merit a Bet - be it for Win or Place under the circumstances. 

9.Beyond Horizons , Savannah Sound , Mambo Magic.

Another low class race to end the proceedings.

So basically out of 9 races , but for One Class II race where Favorite would RUN at Money Back , rest are all OPEN RACES for LOW Class Horses . There is no certainty on any Horse as such owing to the nature of the race & class of horses.

Trainer Sanjay Kolse has some Good entries , can expect 3-4 of them to do well.

Every end is just a new beginning. Don’t forget the past , learn from it.  

If one has to learn from the past , best option is to keep away , why visit the club & bet without an iota of doubt on the  eventual outcome.

No clue on Kolkata , Easier to Play based on Jockey declarations . That is what majority of race goers do faithfully day after day .  Same horses running participating week after week , only end results change .

For those who attend the races , my Good Luck Wishes as Always.

31 st December - Races Mysore

Mysore puzzle , tough to pick Winners confidently in any of the 9 races scheduled.

No Particular Choices from MY side .

Have Shortlisted ( in order of race card ) Horses which can do well. 
 
Difficult to Post comments as in most races there are multiple contenders.

Opt for value bets , backing Win only may not be productive .


1. Vettel , Badshah , Shining Fame.

2. Chelalee , Brigadier , Golden Steps.

3. Flirting King , Ice Sprint , Peppr.

4. Triumphant , Artic Rose , Guapo.

5. Little Athena , Its My Party , Queens Cruise.

6. Absolute Brave  , Rising Rani , Queen.

7. Beautiful Revenge , Color Proof , Premier Ace.

8. Master of the Rolls , Counter Point , Come On Gingin.

9. Charming Night , Malkia , Mother Ewa


Good Luck

29 th December , Hyd Races

Choices for the day are as follows -

1. Ryuzaki , War Dancer , Odysseus.

Youngsters , nothing much  known about debutant's. 

Bharat Princess is a good horse , rider is not competent to Win. 

Moon Walker - usual stable preference is for Deep Shanker for younger horses.  

Celestial Fire , jockey record on saturday proves he is Neil Farley of Hyd , time to pack up aty the earliest. 

Majorca is bred for speed going by DAM factor. As rider is not very active in Hyd , may find the going tough initially.

2. Vijay Vidyut , Parushram , Star Player.

Long distance races , no idea who will play Pace Maker. Couple of Owner's have 2 entries.  Difficult to judge intent  , jockey declarations are not useful.

3. Eva , Full of Life , Racing Ikon.

Horses 8 - 9 must be the worst performers from Trainer's stables. No Show at any stage since debut. One of them could Place as field consists of many mediocre riders.

Racing Ikon may start as favorite , has been failing repeatedly , running often for comfort. At low odds , not worth a Win Bet.

4. Marquise , Symbol of Glory , Rapidest .

Horses 2.6.8.9 have no chance whatsoever.

Rapidest Won  impressively , fancied runner in that race dropped out of contention in the bend. Looks difficult here as there are a couple of Speedier horses.

Symbol of Glory , trainer has picked up a double on sunday , hence not sure of intent. On merit a fair chance.

Marquise - speedy , last run can be ignored as the allowance was not adequate . A good jump from the gates should enable a Win. Rider's merit to be factored with the ODDS.

5. Wind Zoom, Strides of Luck , Silver Passion.

Horses 5 78 have no chance to Win / Place. Vijays's Victory failed miserably in last outing. Not sure why Trainer did not opt for this jockey to offset the handicap.  Facing younger horses. Not easy to Win , could Place.

Silver Passion , with any other jockey could have Won.  Is a late finisher , trainer yet to Win a race , absolutely trash.

Wind Zoom & Strides of Luck have a good chance to Win. Former is the better horse , at times this jockey is unable to handle pressure. One can only hope for the best.

6. Carlton , Movie Moghual , Brahmani.

Desire is a good horse , since Jockey credentials is not established , not short listed. Considering its performance in monsoon , can do well.

Carlton , but for One Dismal run when ridden by Suraj , has been a consistent performer. Can Win , though older horses are in the fray , not a cake walk  as at times Weight  , could make a difference.

Movie Mughual - at low weights , worth taking a  EACH WAY chance due to Saddle Support. Lost to some pretty ordinary horses in recent past.

Brahmani or Always Bullish could sneak in for Place in fancied runners are found lacking in efforts.

7. Right Dimension , Ice Barrier , Machine Gun.

Horses 6.7.8. have last chance to even Place, riders on 1.4 do not inspire confidence. Hence rest 3 are natural contenders.

8. Fruit Roll Up , Roma Royal , Romantic Fire.

Horses 2.4.6.8.10 have no chance to Win / Place , unless there are a few withdrawls.

Dance to Destiny , maximum failures from this Trainer when Top handicap horses are entrusted to this Jockey. Not going to be easy conceding weight to 3 year old's.

9.Grigori ,Desert Bloom , Ponte Verdi.

Horses 7 to 11 may have weights in favour but running often , have lost to inferior horses.  At best one of them could Place.

Good day

28 / 12 / 2014 Races

@ Hyd -

1. Scholar Gypsy , Royal Glow , Gun Stream.

2. Roi's Cruise , Legend , Sivangi.

3. Limitation , Bon Ton , Sefarina.

4. Sterling Finish , San Ramon , Squanderers Square.

5. Racing Tycoon , Exclusive Lady , Sweety Girl.

6. Ray of Light , Golden Arrow.

7. The Challenge , Sonic , Equalizer.

8. Great Warrior , Over Shadow , Prince of Arabia.

9. NANO CLASS , Noble Heights , Hard Hit.

Good Luck

Jackpot - 467 / 325 / 247 / 56 1 

Payouts may be Low if favorites Win 3 / 5 races in Jackpot races. Fair chance for some long priced Horse to Win. Hence do ADD based on personal preferences

@ Mumbai.

1. ,,,,,,,,

2. Gabriella , Pheonix Fire.

3. Went Worth , Caruso , Doc Holiday.

Big Bull chances are not as promising as reflected in the ODDS.

4.  As Good as Gold , Chase the Ace  , Soothsayer.

5. ,,,,,,,,

6. Fibonacci Sequence , Essence of Love , Made to Measure.  
( Born to Win has been withdrawn )

7. Kazuri , Arrete , Don Corleone.

8. Flynn , Extreme Love , Statuesque.

Good day ,

Perils of backing low priced favorites was visible on Saturday. Hence as always Ignore Low Priced Favorites & opt for Value bets.

blr 27 12

Long card of 9 events , most races framed in lower class where form is suspect. Backing fancied runners may not be very profitable , hence look for value bets . 

1. ( Noble Princess ,Little Brown Jug ) Cool Springs.

Class 4 race , dominated by Junk riders / trainers & horses which are yet to Win since making debut. Those who have Won in recent past have opted for negative equipment / handicap is stiff.

Hidden Deal comes from dubious stables , owner name in official record is Bogus , is a front for book makers who decide when to Win. Has been failing repeatedly , Place payouts would be Minimal. Winning looks doubtful.

Simply Clever is best bred , raced with quality field earlier. Running after a long break with a work rider. May do well.

LBJ has best credentials , despite the negative equipment as trainer often changes it to mislead the public. But again as a Non Winner @ top handicap , does not deserve a Bet if Odds are below 1.50. Rest are here / there types , choices above are more on account of handicap , jockey declared / pedigree .

2. Tanganyika , Dancing Laurie , Veelena.

Class VB race , out of 12 entries  , 7 are from 3 trainer's.

It would make sense to look for race time pointers in respect of these 7 horses and decide. In any case , at best they could Place as Win looks difficult considering the past performance of fancied runner who has superior saddle support.

3. Saltoro Ridge ,Secret Dimension , Fourth Dimension.

Options are pretty much restricted to the 3 year old's in the fray. On the basis of recent form  , it looks like the Winner may arise from First 2 named horses.

4 th Dimension / Star of Destiny may have to be contend with Minor Places.

 4. Garuda , Heaven is Here ,  Castle Key.

Garuda was expected to do well on debut , considering its fantastic bloodlines but useless rider could not even take level jump from gates . A fair chance , not outstanding as there are quite a few capable horses which could do well.

Heaven is Here / Castle Key are both well bred , recent tracks are good.
They have scope to do shine , comes from related stables . Race time pointers may
also not help as this is race for 2 year old’s & there is no certainty on any horse as such.

Ninja , Rare and Brave , Sun Moon Stars are also bred for speed . Of these 3 one of them could Place.

5. Speed Stress , Tree Lounge , Liege Lord , Celestial Storm .

Celestial Storm , Won when least expected , as is often the case with low class trainers. Though it beat some very good horses , with junk rider declared here , chances of Winning are bleak.

Speed Stress , Won comprehensively , but field was very modest. Based on jockey declarations / distance suitability factor a Fair chance. Off springs of Excellent Art have NOT shown consistency  , hence at Low Odds , not worth considering.

There are a couple of good horses competing but a look at jockeys declared
& it becomes impossible to go with them even for Place. 

6. Marcus Sittikus , Cadogan , Rakshitha.

Another low class race ,  dominated by the worst possible trainers . Intent of giving entries is itself  suspect.  No point looking into merit , if PLACE Odds are decent , makes sense to Play each way or Ignore

7.Coriolis , Amistad , Stimulate.

Evraz has failed so many times in recent past , that it would be prudent to
Ignore it despite merit. The top handicap does not help its cause. May at best
Place.

Aashikaara was a run away Winner in last outing , the other horses could not
judge the pace & paid the price, Faces some good 3 year old’s here , post
penalty , looks doubtful for even Place.

Stimulate is a late bloomer , as evident by its progress in past 2 seasons.
At low handicap , should easily Place.

Fancied runner Ciriolis has fair credentials , coming 2 nd in Hyd was a
noteworthy effort. Running in open class for the first time , class 2 field.
Tough task but can Win.

8. Little Love , Diamond Quest , Vigorous.

Very competitive race due to presence of many good horses.

Wings of Fortune is a good horse , rogue trainer & owner. Often change of jockeys / equipment made to mislead punters.

Lads Gladiator , despite slow start covered lot of ground to finish 3 rd in previous start. Rider declared here is JUNK..

Ace Angel Fire has shifted stables due to poor performances under earlier trainer’s. Not much can be expected with this stable .

UnGoogleable , trainer yet to Win a single race  , uses work jockeys with an eye on the Odds Results show his class. Can be considered for Place .

Arch Duchess , most rejects from Mumbai entrusted to Father / Son Duo have failed repeatedly , though there was lots of hype when these horses ran in Mumbai. Place contender.

D.Quest , Winner in previous start , carries penalty , should Place. Anything beyond that would depend on jockey capability.

Vigorous has low weights / good rider, is known to finish strongly. Though it beat modest set earlier , fact is most horses in this race have not Won in recent times. Hence can Upset.

9. Mill Rose , Rustic Sunrise , Hendrix.

Hendrix was very impressive on debut , handicapper has rated it a tad too
high for comfort.  Low Odds , conceding weight to other 3 year old’s , 1 st run in open class , all reasons to AVOID .

Rustic Sunrise , Mill Rose , Baracchus are the 3 year old’s who are competing in this race. Obviously 2 of them would Place , if fancied runner fails for whatever reason , then Rustic Sunrise could Upset.

Good day

26 / 12 Kolkatta

Hi all ,



Early start , here are my picks ;





1.  Chhundu , Eternal Instinct , Kremlin.





2. Ever Green , Princess Thea , Don Magnifico.





3. Aithops , Romancer , Alondra.





4. Astral Dancer , Bold As Brass , Milano.





5. Altanza , Scuderia , El Cid.





6. Solitary Eagle , Dakota Dreamer , Gorgeous Girl.





7. Invincible Prince , Dynamo , Astaire.





8. Oath of Valour , Royal Brute , Combined Operation.





9. Casper the Ghost , Secret Builder , Yerevan.





As always ignore Short Priced Favorites listed above . 



Same horses are seen running every other race day , Lot of fatalities on this account.The Junk Trainers of Kolkatta who are involved in this have nothing to Lose as they are funded by book makers. 



Higher the profile of the trainers , it becomes easy to  manipulate races . But for Vijay Singh rest of the prominent trainers have common clients . Jockey declarations have  no  meaning when trainers have multiple entries.

Christmas Day Choices

Brief Selections -

1. Golden Belle , Sentimental.

Runaway Winner earlier on in the season has best credentials. At low odds , does not make sense to back for Win.

Evidence , lot was expected on debut considering bloodlines , ran listlessly , not sure if it can improve within short span , unless there were some issues during that run.

Between the stable mates Roxelana is bred for speed , making debut , as against Ostwind who is tracking well.

Sentimental , at times potential of debutants is not known , limited tracks are a matter of concern.

2. Arrivederci , Shivalik View , Blend of Elegance.

Horses 1.2.3 have least chance on a/c of saddle support , limited track work. Zippy has been pathetic in all runs since debut. At best could Place.

Shivalik View , bred well , a decent 3 rd on debut , long layoff. Rider is not the best , at LOW ODDS why take the RISK.

Arrivederci , has been active in tracks since the Pune season , trainer opting to race it belatedly . Place looks Good , the upset if ANY.

Blend of Elegance , inconsistent but has experience compared to a few other horses. Can be considered for Place.

Star Lightning - so so horse , pune runs were pretty dismal. Place payouts may be Minimal hence ignored.

3.( Calissa ,  Stateira ) Another Conquest.

6 debutants pitted against Calissa  who had a run in # 34.

Rider was pathetic , eased mount in last few metres & lost 2 nd spot.No certainty here too as anyone of the 6 could prove to be better. The subsequent form of horses which raced in # 34 are backward, hence best to IGNORE if it runs at low odds. Dope Abbas yet to Win a race this season.

Another Ace - is bred for speed on the dam side. Has ace rider , stables not very reliable.

Another Conquest - off springs of Pheonix Tower are doing extremely well.  A fair chance.

Stateira - comes into contention due to jockey merit , pedigree , trainer's record. Can hope for the best.

4. Grenadine , Delightful Lady.

Most of the horses were seen in race 26 ,outcome was not expected.

Grenadine was given  worst ride by D.K.Ashish , with regular partner in saddle one should expect a improved performance despite doubts on its staying capability.

Delightful Lady and Al Shamsheer are contenders for Place.

Square Moon - best to ignore horses from this stable , failing repeatedly for non racing reasons.  

Ace Fantasy - may have finished ahead in # 26 , does have advantage in scales , facing younger horses , also a repair case having skipped One season.

5. Himalayan Dancer ,  Glorious Crown , Diamond Zip , Two Oceans

Class VB race , best avoided since most horses are bereft of merit. Pure guess work involved based on age / recent tracks / intent.

6. ( Beach Game , Gascony ) Grey Mist .

After many dubious runs with Work jockeys , Beach Game showed marked improvement in its previous outing. Looks fit and with small advantage in weights from Gascony / Fast Lady can Win.

Gascony - withdrawn in previous start , conceding weight to other 3 year old's not going to be easy. Race is restricted to the fancied duo.

Fast Lady - just 1 Win to its credit in Blr under controversial circumstances. Difficult to consider here .

Lot of bogus entries from Lagad / Antia , the horses have no chance to Win logically , guess their intent is to create obstacles to fancied runners with ulterior motives. Else why skip entries in same class on other race days  & flooding with entries on special days ?

Royal Wish is running at low weights , after 1 run , rider is backward .

Phelps / Tempest - have been very inconsistent , could do well depending on how badly fancied runners are affected by traffic problems .

7. Zander , Solomon ,  Zoom Zoom.

Solomon will run at LOW ODDS ?? Logically the Winner , makes no sense backing , particularly since it is making debut in handicap races , that too in class 2 . Only reason it could do well is because many JUNK horses are in fray.

Horses 2.5.6.8.9.11.12 have least chance due age factor , lack of preparation. Among these , Ice Skates has low weights , may Place.

Monza has raced in class 1 earlier , set back case as Owners disposed off for whatever reasons. Last run JUNK Rider could not do much. May Place.

Zoom Zoom - skipped Pune season , prior to that a consistent performer. Rider has been doing well off late, with benefit of a run in # 24 , has a fair chance to Place.

Desert Wings needs a strong rider , Place payouts would be LOW , risky to bet atthose ODDS.

Zander- Won twice when trained by A Dajee ( CDK was under suspension) Was very impressive .Now that controversial & dubious trainer is back , difficult to guess intent as He will face hostile Commitee Members during the Award ceremony. Shroff had these issues earlier but Crowd of owner's ensured it went without any hitches. Worth taking a chance only if CDK is not around.

8. ( Zambian , Draco ) Smokie.

Draco did well in # 51 despite work rider in saddle. A fair chance to Win.

Kandinsky / Samson / Smokie are debutants , the last named is bred to stay. Can hope to Place. First 2 are ignored due to jockey capability.

Zambian , has been unlucky during past 2 runs. Has good saddle support , bred well. Shoudl easily Place , could Win.

Melinda -   despite 6 runs , remains a Non Winner. First few runs were bad due to work jockeys & lack of preparation. Last run was good , ODDS are LOW & hence a Win bet is not justified particularly since Sire has low success & dubious trainer.
 

9. Fire Proof , Ricochet , Starry Moment , Strawberry Crush.

Long distance race class 4. Top handicap does not help the cause of Strawberry Crush since there are many untested horses over this distance running at LOW weights.

Ricochet , last run was noteworthy as it devoured lot of ground despite a slow start and finished impressive 3 rd. Facing younger horses & stable is not very active , a chance bet due to ODDS.

Starry Moment , may relish the trip  , last run can be ignored as Low class jockey did duty.

Flying Angel / Fire Proof were both seen in race 51 , one of them has scope to UPSET.

Saporelli - always seen finishing on well during closing stages , not sure of staying capability . Dam was a stayer , hopefully it could do the distance.

Burlesque - last run was a disaster , all 3 younger horses could not match strides with 5 year old . Recent tracks are no doubt good , as a fancied runner does not appeal. It has to Win first to take a call for the future. 

10. Wilderness ,  Earth Tamer , Praelector.

Tinogona , last run , horse had put on lot of weight , jockey had 4 winners already , was seen struggling in initial stages , but came with a  flourish in closing stages to finish impressive & close 4 th. Is facing some very good 3 year old's & also carrying weight , at best place prospect.

Earth Tamer was also seen in same race , finished 6 th , with better saddle support / handicap can PLACE.

Wilderness was most impressive in race 30. A good chance to Oblige.

Praelector , raced in superior company in # 35 , Winner is now seen in class 2.  2 nd placed horse ran in the classics. Hence a fair chance, ODDS / Rider capability to be factored.

Good day ,

24 th Mysuru

1. ( Cosmic Touch , Sky Jasmine ) Al Dorado.

but for horses 2.4.7 rest are all in with a chance to Win / Place.

Sakura Delight is tracking extremely well , may start as favorite. Jockey has not Won any races for 2 year old's in recent past. Wins on well prepared experienced horses in handicap races. Does not allow the horses to run freely in front , strangles them from the word go. At low odds , risky to bet , hence ignored.

Sufficient Proff , came with belated bid to finish 3 rd on debut.  Can hope to Place.

Sky Jasmine , lots of track work noticed , intent is seen  A fair chance , bookie owned  horse , so race time pointers will help.

Al Dorado - is active in tracks , looks extremely fit , should Place.

Cosmic Touch - well bred by mysore standards , rider seen across all clubs except Home centre , not sure if he has been blacklisted.  The upset if ANY .

2. ( The Back Bencher , Welcome Again )  Black Wind.

VB race dominated by 3 year old's , couple of older horses in fray , may  not be able to hit the front  due to age factor.

Welcome Again , covered lot of ground in previous start to finish 3 rd.  Rider is always seen making effort belatedly , not known for front running tactics despite low weights. A fair chance.

The Back Bencher , last run was quite decent , recent tracks give  hope for improved performance.

3. Royal Regina ,  Beautiful Fynn , Always United

RR , last run to be ignored lost to aged horse , ODDS drifted , no tracks were visible between past 2 runs. With benefit of a run , has credentials to come good.

Always United , has seen better days , at times even Darashah may oblige , trainer Monappa's horses are not reliable., often they fail due to external factors, At this handicap / rider no point considering a Win bet.

Queens Cruize and Beautiful Fynn are both endowed with initial speed , one of them can hope to Place.

Empress of Ethiopia runs at low weights , younger horse , can do well if In the ODDS as it is bookie's horse & their intent is to beat the fancied runners always.

4. Albatross , Esoterical , Santa Maria.

Horses 2.4.6.8.10 have least chance to Win nor Place.

Guapo running very frequently & each time over different distance. Handicap, presence of younger horses do not help its cause.  Ignored Guapo due to Presence of interlinked horses 8 & 11.

All for Cash - reject from Darashah stable , has raced with superior horses , horse has been tracked extensively unlike the past. As it is seen after a break , best to watch progress for future engagements.

Teri Adah / Esoterical are from same stable , former is tracked extensively , yet to do well over this trip. Latter is always seen finishing on well , jockey has NO Whip.

Albatross - younger horse , low handicap , can Win.  Lot of fancied horses are ridden by this dubious jockey , avoidable if ODDS are LOW.

5. ( Catchy Charger , Little Athena ) Coffee Time.

Catchy Charger , last run was bad , first run under new trainer.  A Winner during the previous season , was pretty consistent as it is Owned by Hyd based Trainer & it was always tried to ensure stake money is earned. As field consists of many aged horses has scope to do well , very impressive in tracks.

Coffee Time , inconsistent as ever , showed a lot of promise earlier . Last run was noteworthy , could Place.

Little Athena , last run was over a Mile , has always Done well when ridden by this jockey , coming off the pace in the last 200 metres . Positive intent noticed , facing younger horses , can hope for the best.

Lagoona is a Winner in same class , rider has been utterly hopeless in recent times. 

Country's Nobility - Change in trainer ??  this horse has not done as well as Owner mate Country's Beauty which is a known front runner. Rider is mediocre , had some engagements in Delhi off all the Places. Obvious some bookie would have paid for the Flight Tickets . Not a class 1 reputed jockey to travel across all Major clubs. 

Thundering Cruise , did well in previous start , trainer has his " Boys " to land gambles. This rider is not one among them . 

6. Blue Zone , Al Attaturk , Divine Love.

Two horses are chosen for AGE / Handicap , rest 1 comes into contention on sheer class as it has seen better days in Mumbai / Kolkatta . No recent form for Al Attaturk , since field is modest can hope to Place.

Divine Love , did well when least expected after the change in stable. Odds will be less than 5 to 1 , last time it was 50 to 1 . Runs over right trip , can do well.  Not a certainty by any means.

Blue Zone - last run was not genuine as Rider without Whip could not do Justice. A Place certainty , as  this is a quality field. Worth taking a chance E/ W due to ODDS factor.

No Doubt - running often for comfort over unsuitable distances , trainer / jockey both not very reliable . Hence ignored.

Color Me ,. may need allowance jockey to do well as handicap is stiff.

7. ( Country's Beauty , Bourbon Street , Catharsis )

Bandito , came with a sustained run in the last 100 metres to Win when all hopes were lost. Facing superior horses here , could at best Place.

Bourbon Street is a known front runner , import from western india . Did well initially , then lost its way when fancied due to obvious reasons. Has Low weights , can hope to Place / Upset.

Time Flies , last run prior to retirement , not sure if favours will be granted by fellow trainers. 

Catharsis , last 2 runs were very backward , 1 st time Jockey took it to the front could not sustain ,  2nd run was never in the hunt. Both occassions race time pointers were negative. Recent track work with 2 year old stable mate is quite good.  Can Upset.

Country;s Beauty is known to cut a fast Pace , last outing beat the likes of Jolie & Abbas Dreams , horses which won't be able to Place in this field. Hence relative merit is a ??  Front running tactics / age are in favour , ODDS may be LOW.  

8. Ice Brown , Pamushana , Green Bro.

 Green Bro , last run at Mysore. No recent form to back its claims ,  rider declared does well when the Money is on the Horse.

Pamushana , last outing , nearly Won the race , led at 100 metre marker , was 2 nd till the last 50 metres , finally finished 4 th . Can't blame the jockey as it was WHIPLESS race.  Place looks Good.

Ice Brown - last few runs were in class 3 , trainer decided to reduce ratings , is not running in class 4 where it has Won earlier.  Can Win , if Odds does not drift at race time.

Queens Color , ultra consistent , facing many good horses , hence ignored.

Always Love , rider is useless , horse not genuine as proved by inconsistent performances

Good day

Low cost JP - Add / Delete based on personal preferences 

11 /  6 8 / 2 9 11 / 3 6 / 5

22 - 12 Hyd Races

When a Premier Jockey accepts 7 engagements all of which will be either 1 st or 2 nd favorite , it becomes impossible to pick Probable Winners / Horses to Bet. A couple of Winners early & racegoers will doubt the chances on rest of engagements , couple of failures  & niggling doubts on the next ride.  At longer Odds , no harm in taking a chance on each of the 7 horses , but when they are Fancied ,  next to impossible to confidently BET at race time .



Hype overrides merit in all these cases as Punters are swayed by Book maker Odds.  At times Jockey with multiple engagements report ILL after losing a Race , creating further doubts. If this was OOTY or CHENNAI , it would have been easier to guess Outcome as everything is decided in advance.

My comments on the chances of the 7  -

1.  Gentle Chief -  Small field , few mediocre riders / horses , should Logically Oblige. Guess Odds may be below 40/100.



2. Chal Raja Chal - As Vijays Joy was outstanding on debut , i would not give it a chance to Win. May have to fight with That's My Darling for Place.



3. Proud Image - GOOD chance as Horses 1 ,5,6,7,8 have no Chance to Win. Likely Odds below Evens.



4. Aston Doulton - Last outing , Whip less Race & Yash Narredu messed it up royally. As there is genuine competition from Horses 1.2.6 ,  Odds may be Above 1.50 as there could be support for other 3 horses.



5. Rio Rojo -  Competition from Rahul's Diamond only as Machine Gun beat poor field last time. Former is known slow starter.   Hence Rio Rojo has a Fair chance.



6. Blossom -  though this horse finished 3 rd in last start , it was more on account of front runners losing pace , trying to challenge the Winner. As there are a couple of 3 year old's in the fray , it would pay to keep away.



7. Go for Gold - Has Winning form but penalty in form of top handicap. Runs over short trip ,  Horses 2 & 6 are likely threats.



With bulk of these horses coming from notorious P.Raju stables where, Low Priced Favorites is the norm , it would be a roller coaster ride.  Punters or Bookies , time will Tell. 





My preferences - Excluding above 7 are -



1. Perceptions - Place . No compulsion to bet in small fields.



2. Vijays Joy Win or That's My Darling for Place. No compulsion to bet in small fields.



3. Bon Ton , Poll Promise , Legend.



Race for youngsters , first named is tracking well. Place looks certain. Can Win.



Legend was prominent in last start ,  trainer has not changed equipment , could have opted for better rider if Interested. Intent may be missing.



Poll Promise  - debut run was poor , recent tracks good.



4. Save the Nation - All Pools



5. Kireeti or True Pearl ( former the better horse , rest depends on ODDS )



6. Mid Night In Paris , Ein Ein Ein , Win & Enjoy.


Rider on MNIP is very backward , needs to keep horse in handy position or a lost cause due to sprint distance.


Ein Ein Ein , a promotee , has low weights.



Win & Enjoy has seen better days , post stable change , at best a Place prospect.



7. Toss up between fancied runners , saddle skills may decide outcome.



8. Dandy Girl - All Pools


Racing Ikon a good horse , tends to drift out in stright , rider is not all that good to handle pressure.

Rocky Hill could at best Place.

Fancied runner , may or may not.



9. Shimmering Ice , Military Belle.



Latter has weights in favour but beaten poor opposition , not sure if  Place bet is justified below Evens. Catherine has no recent form , above 1.5 for Place , no harm in considering.

Shimmering Ice Won impressively , facing superior field / carrying weight. Place Odds may be minimal. Hence only Win can be considered , going against a Horse which has Won twice.





Good Luck

Jackpot Options -

1 2 8  / 1 5 9 / 1 2 / 6 7 / 2

Mumbai / Hyd 21 st races

Drab card @ Mumbai , not many races are bettable due to Expected Low Odds. Not that all low Odds Horse Wins , just that  racegoers tend to lose focus when there are many On Money Favorites.

1. Top Commander

2. Savannah Sound , Earth Sensor , Shivalik Skies.

3. Costo Del Sol , Harvey , Flying Snow.

4. Celsius , Mykonos , Victorius March.

5. Burgandy Rose , Alecto , Sun Hot.

6. Amelia , Deja Vu , Mariinsky.

7. Zachary , Rule Down Under.

I don't need to specify Money Back horse .

8.Beth Page , Ramesses , Vanguard.

Good Luck

@ Hyd 

 Ignore Low Priced favorites.

1. Escalante / Columbus.

2. Blue Eyed Babe . Racing Ruler.

3.Crown Royal , Taviz.

4.Sunday Beauty , Altruist , Olive.

5.Elenor , Meg , Ashwa Shakti.

6.Panachecorn , Flower Roll Up , Super Falcon.

7.Un Un Un , Jack Sparrow , Queen of the Stars.

8.Bold Attack , Dazzling Princess , Globe Trotter.

Good day

20 th December Blr Races

Preoccupied with personal work , hence Selections sans Comments.   

On Money favorites are not Listed ahead for Obvious reasons.

1.  Ravelnation , Areca Wonder , Astral Spirit.

2. Amanda , Masked Marvel , Dream Star .

3. Western Lady , WindAMare , Jeyem's Spirit.

4. Native Indian , Click ,  Madam Bovary.

5. Bazinga , Commissariat , Czar Rule.

6. Ancient Title , Real Steel , Athletic Star.

7. Ethopian ,  Irish Song , Treasure Mountain.

8. Soul Magic , Expert , Atmos.

9. Frenemee , Nabisco , Ace Badraan.

With many favorites obliging over past few days across all race centres , fair chance for Long priced horses running amok. First 2 named horses can be considered for Win or Value bets. Last named for Place only.

Blr 19/12

Hi all ,

Analysis of the races and choices are as follows :

1. Liquid Asset , Spark of Illusion , Attractive Bay.

Best to skip this race as Out of 9 horses in fray 4 are from N.Gowda & 2 from Md Khan of which 1 is repair case. The  Horse ridden by A Ramu has no chance to even Place. Inspirator does not appeal & Mister Grey has been a let down since it made debut.

Attractive Bay will be fancied as rider of Liquid Asset is not known for saddle skills.

2. Alecia , Carbonado , Big Copper Penny

Rich Revival Won the first race of the season at lucrative Odds of 15 to 1. May start as Even Money favorite , why consider now at low Odds ??

Alecia was fancied in the same race & could not get a clear passage , finished a close 4 th. Going by relative handicap / choice of jockeys , Alecia looks the better Horse at least from ODDS point of view.

Carbonado , did well when least expected , rider took it to the front , stayed put till the end ,  could Place here.

Big Copper Penny & New Victor are horses which are capable of finishing 3 rd.

3. Sheer Elation , Secret Launch , Sands of Time.

Shaft seems to have lost form , last 2 runs were pathetic. Top weight does not help.

Sands of Time - Trainer uses 3 rd rate jockeys to reduce rating / achieve fitness & then tries to Win with faithful riders. Hope it loses.

Secret Launch , last outing failed miserably , not sure why the horse was installed as favorite. There was no track in between 2 earlier runs. Runs over right distance , has good saddle support , should Place.

Sheer Elation - Debut run at Pune was poor , guess trainer / owner realised that horse can't withstand Mumbai competition , shifted to Blr to help earn stake money. Well bred , low weights , can WIN.

Passion Flora did well with 5 kg claimer , now entrusted to DUD rider. Fleet Street ,last run was poor , has credentials to PLACE.

4.Nesto , New Emperor , Nimfea.

Super Force is a good horse , has poor saddle support , dubious trainer, did not even Place in previous outing. Tracks are good , can Place. Payouts may be minimal.

New Emperor runs after a long break , had shown some consistency in summer. Some of the horses it raced with are in higher class. Can Place.

Nesto - last run flopped , was running after long layoff , did not help that Worst ever jockey to grace indian turf was entrusted with task. Worst then even Ooty riders , packed off by Owner to cut losses. Has a fair chance here.

Nimfea , Shrewd Master are contenders for Place. 

5.  Royal Rein , Jackie Oh , Grey Connection.

Assidious is not consistent as evident by its record. When fancied is not seen at the busy end.

Manta Ray is a good horse , trainer had his Share last week. Beside jockey declared may not be interested as fancied runner is from A.Caddy.

Jackie Oh - a fair chance to Place / upset , having finished a close 5 th in last outing , just 1.25 lenghts from Winner.

Lovely Lady , Grey Connection & the rest are in contention for Place.

6.  Anecdote , West Side Story , Pippin.

Pentagram Won in poor set , can't be expected to Win here as it is conceding weight & facing many superior speedy horses.

West Side Story , was sent to Kolkata , where it finished 2 nd to One of the best mid distance local horse. If it is fit a fair chance.

Pippin - Won when none expected it to do the 1400 trip  , can hope to Place.

Forest Tern , difficult to justify when trainer does not convey positive intent.

Glittering , a fair chance as it has Won twice. But a look at the beaten brigade reflects mediocre opposition. Rider does not inspire confidence for Win.

7. Del Marco , Cherry Hilton , Galway Girl.

Horses 1 2 3 can't be considered for WIN due to handicap , choice of  riders. At best One of them could Place.

Del Marco , costly failure on opening day , looks fit now , getting weight from rest of the field. Runs over ideal Trip. Worth backing if Odds are reasonable.

Galway Girl and Cherry Hilton are also racing over optimum trip , good chance to Place / Upset.   

8. Why Should I , Vito , Battle Empress / Interactive.

Going by its previous run , there seems to be no opposition to WHY Should I . Trainer could Pick the last 2 races.

Battle Empress & Interactive are from same stable , one of them should Place. 

Recent tracks of Vito are forward , has a fair chance to Place. 

Good day



Jackpot Options - Add/ delete based on personal preferences / ODDS .

Nesto
Royal Rein , Jackie Oh.
Pippin , Anecdote , West Side Story
Del Marco.
Why Should I

Mumbai - 1000 Guineas Race Day

Long day ahead , analysis of races & personal preferences are as follows -

1. Acker Bilk , Malzie , Maalik.

Class VB race , younger horses may have the edge for obvious reasons.

Zaagros has better credentials than Without Fear. As intent is not clear , not shortlisted.

Super Tramp has proved to be a dud par excellence , merely changing rider may not make any difference.

2. Pablito , Night of Stars , Regal

As long as 3 rd class trainers like K.Ganapathy uses mediocre riders like N. Rawal there is no scope for Spirited Touch to Win , however good it may be.

This being a race for juveniles most of whom are making debut , pedigree , recent tracks & jockey declared are criteria for selection. What matters finally is Level jump from the Gates.

Mogadishu , does not represent value at Low Odds when merit of most horses is not known.

Pablito is well bred , should at least Place , offsprings of King Da are known to do well on 
debut .

Regal is tracking well , trainer rarely Wins with juveniles. Prefers to bring them to class VB & then Win. Since bloodlines are promising , a fair chance to Place.

 
3. Commander , Myla Rose , Moon Shadow.

Two payout race , difficult to pick as many horses have credentials. 

Commander after many listless runs with work rider is entrusted to a task master who could make the difference. Horse has seen better days compared to rest of field. Can be ignored if Horse is Not in the BETTING.

Myla Rose and Moon Shadow are running over right distance. The former is a known front runner ,  latter is known to finish on strongly. 

Spirit of Mercy has been ultra consistent , hence better credentials than stablemate Papakura .
 
Trance / Mint Approach are mighty inconsistent , come from dubious stables. If quoted at 10 to 1 , no harm in taking chance on horses from these stables. When both are fancied , best to ignore as RISK outweighs Reward. 

When first 2 Favorites in any Race are Quoted above 2.5 in 90 % cases they don't Win .

4. ( Fribourg / Legend of the Seas ) Simply Sweet.

First 2 Spots restricted to the younger horses in the fray, Mambo Magic or Aberdus could sneak in for Place if fancied runners falter.

Fribourg has not shown any form in recent past , last season runs were good , pedigree is impressive. Since jockey declared is good , one has to presume that Fitness is established. Trainer was suspended , not sure of the dates , since there are a lot of entries from his yard , a fair chance to do well before bidding goodbye.  If race time pointers are positive may Shine.

Legend of the Seas , pune runs to be discounted as in most of the runs , there was no real intent. , as evident in choice of jockeys. Tracking well , has Inform Jockey. Can Win.  

Simply Sweet , going by the subsequent Winning performance of F .Sequence ( rated 50 ) there will be support for this filly.  At Low Odds , i prefer to ignore due to inconsistent performance from the stable.  



Nature Boy has not raced over this distance , foolish to consider as it is facing younger horses. 

5. ( Aquamarine / Savage Beauty )  Ultimate Glory

Aquamarine & His Highness have both beaten Savage Beauty , all 3 competed in Pune , relative handicap does not favour His Highness.  Won purely on account of low weights in previous start. Has no class whatsoever as evident in rating. 2000 metres with 61 kgs , even Place looks doubtful.

Aquamarine is better bred , has positive saddle support , can repeat.

Ultimate Glory , has done nothing of note in both its runs. Low weight / better jockey extended distance may fetch a place spot.

Among the older horses Sky Lantern appeals for Place.


6. Mighty Splendour , Wish Upon A Star , Polar Zone.


Burgandy Rose , will turn 6 shortly , yet a maiden , conceding weight , a Win bet can't be justified due to innumerable failures.


With multiple entries from usual suspects like Antia & Lagad , options are limited if all those horses are Ignored.


Not that First 2 named horses are best on merit , just that handicap is attractive , negatives on other horses does not inspire confidence. Hopefully One of them should Do well.

7. ( Victoria  Harbour , Critics Choice ) Kyoto.

Race for Juveniles , but for a couple , rest are debutant's

Red Wonder was seen finishing on strongly on debut , no recent tracks , rider may be good , trainer is backward. At Low Odds , not worth taking a chance for even Place.

Silvano is bred to stay , not sure if it can do well over sprint distance. Since it has benefit of a run could at best Place ., as many inter linked horses are in fray Ignored.

Bay of Secrets may need more ground , preparation is lacking. Block Buster , owner gets the best pedigree horses. Unfortunately most of them are not genuine , reason for distress sale.

Critics Choice , is very active in tracks , entrusted to leap year Winning jockey. Those who wager on this horse can hope it is his Day.

V.Harbour is bred for speed , Sire has been giving Winners at Prime centres. A fair chance .

8.  Feature Event of the Day. 17 runners , there could be some interferences at the start , traffic problems mid way , luck of the draw does not hold good in Mile Races for 3 year old's.

Ratings have no relevance in this race , those with Higher rating could have achieved it by Winning handicap races at Low weights or beaten aged horses.  A few have Won races in class 4. Surely those can't be expected to Win here as Trainers themselves have limited opinion of them going by the entry in low class races. One has to reduce contenders based on certain parameters in order to have clarity. Based on that ELEVEN Horses ie -
1.2.3.4.6.8.9.10.12.14.15.16 have been omitted , some due to poor saddle support , some are seeing class for the first time.  

Explanation for notable omissions -

S.F is running first time in Mumbai , previous runs has hardly beaten any horses of note. Entry more on hope than merit.

A.Mills could have been considered under any other rider as it has raced with superior horses in Blr. Gymkhana riders can Win graded races in Ooty , not in premier racing centre

Bon Vivant - Not much can be read into its 2 Wins , the latest was when it was carrying low weights in class 3 and beat aged horses. At level weights facing Graded race Winners , it would be a herculean task to Win.  With a bit of luck can hope to Place.

Apart from 3 fancied horses Maisha , God Speed , Polydances , i have opted for 2 rank outsiders. Dramarama & West Phalia .

No need to mention the merits of fancied runners as they are in Public Domain. Maisha and God Speed are the best of the Lot going by past performances. Polydances is one paced and that does not help. Facing very tough bunch unlike last 2 starts.

West Phalia , Won thrice this year. When raced at Hyd , lost its way in the betting , rider did not show usual aggression , it was a close finish . Bred well , tracks are decent , very fit , can hope to UPSET or at least Place.

Dramarama , finished 3 rd to Polydances , since there is better saddle support over extended distance there is scope to Place.

9. Logano , Annabeth , Rock the Turf.

Low class race to end the proceedings.