Can Ice Breaker LOSE ??

Edited this morning

From all indications the Odds on the one time Classic Hopeful Ice Breaker is not expected to be beyond .10 paisa unless there are negative signals at race time.The Horse has participated in many classics and met up with the best in its age.

Here it t is meeting up with some Horses which have come up in the ratings in the recent past by Winning some handicap races.The distance of 2800 is going to test the staying capability of the horses and the outcome to decide minor placings will be decided by the tactics used by the Jockeys astride the Horses.


My choices on the St Leger race day are as follows ;


Fleet Indian ( i see the morning odds at .50 , no point in backing or recommending at those odds , I will have a negative bet )


Red Stone , Sherman , Shades of White.

Red Stone was not ridden to its potential in its previous outing and the Jockey was content in sticking to the rails. Cant bet confidently when the intent is lacking many a time.

Fleet Indian , has seen better horses and its close 6 th to Sprint Star along with subsequent track work does indicate that it is FIT and Ready to strike and give the Owner / Trainer the First win this season.Low odds , hence not worth a bet.

Sherman , usually is taken to the front but in its last run was not allowed to dictate terms.Horse was also not in the odds. Can place.

Shades of White , front runner , bred well at best place.



2.One of the most competitive races this season with at least 8 horses having the potential to do well.

I dont prefer APPU inspite of his 2 recent victories.So Baton Rogue can be ignored.
Appolonaire was full of running in race 107 but inconsistency is the hallmark of this stable.
Glitterato , may have done well on debut but may find it tough against seasoned campaigners.
Best Dancer does not have the services of a Good Jockey.

Classic Concept : Trackign extremely well. Should be in 1- 2.
Gold Crown - Horse lost to Celestial way which beat better horses recently , indicating that the Horse can do well.
Russian Dancer - was given a light run in race 91. Will definitely place.
Calypso Star - One dismal run against Lady duff , looks extremely difficult for WIN.


3.Social Climber , Star Assembly , Frozen fire , Spark of Solitaire.

Frozen Fire is a Good negative bet if it is below EVEN MONEY.

Social Climber finished 4 th in race 108. The extended distance should benefit the Horse being bred to stay.

Star Assembly was not really interested to WIN against BEE QUICK.At this handicap , difficult to have a confident bet for WIN.

Spark of Solitaire , did not beat anything of note.Can be ignored.


4.

Star Presentation and One are ruled out.

Conceptual has been showing remarkable improvement in recent runs.It is a class 2 WINNER and to do well here is a ???? but due to Limited Horses in the fray nothing can be conclusively stated as the pace of the race and judgement will decide the outcome not the CLASS or Pedigree.

Spark of Gold - Clicked a smart time over 1800. Can it stay this 2800 trip ??? Services of M.Narredu is a surprise.

Ice Breaker - may be quoted at 10 paisa net . Rather than backing the Other horses for WIN or PLACe , laying this Horse makes sense , at these odds it makes value proposition.

The certainty on the 2 nd placed horse is not decided and laying the favorite and backing another horse for place will result in further losses.


5.Cart Wheel , River Island , Own Voice,

Bad race.

Cart Wheel was severely interfered by rookie N S Parmar on Spirituall which lead the Jockey to stop riding his mount. WILL PLACE here. With a bit of luck can WIN.

Mighty Heart - at this handicap doubtful for place.

Own Voice - late bid in AFEA race. Not ridden to merit.Can do well.

Bee Quick - beat nothing of note though the manner of Victory was good.

River Island - UPSET FOR THE DAY.


6.Pleasant Glory , Flip your Destiny , Sparkling Adventure, Sudden Thunder.

Bad race.

Flip your destiny is looking good for place.

Sudden Thunder is tracking well , but at this handicap looks difficult for WIN.

Pleasant Glory is expected to WIN.


7.Son of the Sun , Western Palace , Commache War Paint.

Another bad race.


Days Best - NONE - as Fleet Indian is .50 paisa and i would rather have a negative bet than recommending it .


Kainchi - Social Climber , Classic Concept , Own Voice , Pleasant Glory.

good for place - Russian Dancer , Cart Wheel , Spark of Gold , Flip your Destiny , Western Palace.


shyam